Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to announce her running mate within a week. According to prediction market Polymarket, there are four front-runners. While no poll nor market can guarantee an outcome, Polymarket has a pretty strong track record of forecasting this election's twist and turns so far.
Polymarket priced in a 10% chance of President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, even before his infamous debate against Donald Trump in late June. The day before Trump announced his pick for JD Vance to be his running mate, Polymarket had this outcome at 68%.
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