Passenger numbers at Heathrow are, for want of a better word, flying.
Bosses at the west London hub now expect to handle 83.8 million arrivals and departures this year, a Birmingham sized city more than than the 82.8 million it forecast just three months ago, and almost three million more than the pre-pandemic high water mark in 2019.
The resurgence is all the most remarkable given the cost of living pressures that have side-swiped a myriad other sectors from luxury fashion to hospitality.
But there is no sign of it for aviation, at least not in the numbers pumped out by Heathrow today. One can only assume that the ghastly experience of the pandemic has fundamentally, and perhaps permanently, shifted the spending priorities of consumers, not just in Britain but around the western world.
Mere things are out, and memory-making is in, whether it is a family holiday on a Greek island, a trip with mates to watch the Euros in Germany, or a once in a lifetime round the world adventure. That sombre collective memory of being trapped at home for months on end during the lockdowns does appear to have unlocked a lust for exploring distant horizons - and sooner rather than later.
Judging by my recent trip through Terminal 5, the airport is holding up pretty well, despite processing more passengers than at any time in its history. The security experience is efficient, if joyless, but the air-side departure terminal is never less than rammed, a sign of how close Heathrow is now getting to full capacity.
The airport can handle the growth it expects for a year or two, perhaps up to around 90 million, but every piece of infrastructure has an ultimate ceiling. Heathrow now describes itself as the world’s busiest two runway airport, just to ram home just how many souls it is handling with the limited amount of tarmac at its disposal.
Today CFO Sally Ding was sticking to the line that the internal review team re-examining the pros and cons of the Third Runway is still carrying out its work.
But there is little doubt in my mind that behind the scenes Heathrow, probably in close conversation with Government officials, is now building up the case for restarting the project ahead of an announcement, perhaps early next year.
They will have to demonstrate that the expansion could meet the four tests set by the Government - contribution to growth (a slam dunk presumably), and compliance with climate change obligations and noise and air quality targets.
That sort of time-line - and it is pure guesswork on my part - could present Labour with a banquet of options in 2025 so far as runway building around London is concerned.. Gatwick’s proposals for a second fully functioning runway - the so called Northern Runway scheme - are currently with planning inspectors due to give their recommendations by late November.
Assuming the Gatwick recommendation is “yes” and, also assuming that Heathrow CEO Thomas Woldbye follows his instincts and pushes the button on Third Runway, the Government will be faced with choices that will affect life in and around London, as well as that elusive search for economic growth, for generations to come. So will it be...both...or one...or neither? Over to you Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner. It is a big shout.
