You don’t need to be a maths professor to realise Hearts have a defensive problem on their hands. But the numbers paint a worrying picture.
Robbie Neilson has seen his team ship 35 goals in 18 matches this season - an average of 1.94 goals per game. They’ve kept just two clean sheets all season - away to RFS and Motherwell in successive fixtures back in September - but have been breached in every other game so far.
When you compare those numbers to last season, the difference is stark. In their first 18 matches at the beginning of last term, Hearts conceded 15 goals in their first 18 matches in all competitions, and didn't hit the 35 goal mark until March - 38 games into the campaign. At this stage last year, they’d managed eight clean sheets in what was a solid start to the season that laid the foundations for a comfortable third placed finish.
Of course, there are some caveats and legitimate reasons why they are leaking far more goals 12 months on. Firstly, the Premier Sports Cup group stages are a different kettle of fish from those of the Europa Conference League. The Jambos didn’t concede a goal in their four matches against Peterhead, Cove Rangers, Stirling Albion and Inverness CT.
You can’t compare that level of opposition to Fiorentina and Istanbul Basaksehir, so it’s no wonder the GA column is looking less healthy after games against those two. That being said, 12 goals in three games against the big two in the group, having played twice at Tynecastle, hasn’t made for enjoyable Euro nights under the lights.
The main factor has been injuries. At some point since August, Craig Halkett, Kye Rowles, Michael Smith, Stephen Kingsley, Alex Cochrane, Lewis Neilson, Toby Sibbick and Nathaniel Atkinson have all been missing for at least one game through injury or suspension.
It’s shown as well. Neilson has had to chop and change his back line in front of Craig Gordon. And even Scotland’s number one hasn’t been his usual self over the last few weeks. A major gaffe at Kilmarnock has been followed up with one or two slight errors by Gordon’s usual extremely high standards.
However, Neilson is hopeful Halkett and Rowles will be back in contention to play soon, which should see things tighten up. Even Smith being able to put his boots on offers Hearts more balance at the back.
"We had two natural full-backs on either side of the defence, which helps,” said Neilson. “Previously we had been shoehorning people into different positions because of injury problems. Getting Michael Smith back is a big bonus for us because it gives us that natural balance and allows Alex Cochrane to go back out to left-back. Then we have a right-footer and a left-footer in the centre with Toby Sibbick and Stephen Kingsley.
“That has probably been my biggest frustration recently. We have had to chop and change our shape simply because we haven't had enough defensive players to fill the roles we want to.”
They still don’t, but it’s comparatively weaker RFS at Tynecastle this Thursday on Europa Conference League duty. The expectation is that Hearts will follow up their 2-0 win in Latvia with another in Gorgie.
If they don’t then questions will be asked regardless of any injury woe. Keeping the back door shut would help their cause immeasurably.
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