CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa _ Colin Allred had a very big promise to make about Joe Biden's prospects in the general election.
Forget conventional battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, the swing-seat congressman told a few dozen Biden supporters and staff gathered recently at a campaign office here. If Democrats nominate the former vice president, he'll win an even bigger electoral prize: Texas.
"I'm telling you from the plains of Texas, we need you to pick Joe Biden," said Allred, bullish about a state Democrats haven't won since Jimmy Carter's victory there in 1976. Most political analysts consider the state a longshot for the eventual Democratic nominee in even the rosiest of scenarios.
"Texas is on the verge of flipping," Allred said, "but it's not just going to flip for anybody."
Over the last year, Biden's campaign in Iowa has been sluggish, even by his allies' admission, then revived, thanks in part to a successful December bus tour, and now threatened, by a late surge in support for Bernie Sanders.
But with just days to go before the lead-off caucuses, Biden and his allies are relying on a blunt message of electability _ hopeful that the sizable chunk of undecided voters fixated on defeating Donald Trump will swing support to his campaign.
The message has appeared in TV ads. It's been interwoven in a series of recent endorsements. And on the ground Iowa _ a state where the national polling frontrunner doesn't need to win, but must stay competitive _ it's one top Biden supporters are eager to make.
"If you look at polls in Florida, in Virginia, in Pennsylvania, and Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, Arizona ... the only candidate who was competitive in every single one of those states is Joe Biden," said Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor who has endorsed Biden. "That's a pretty wide-ranging group of states, and if you win most of those states, they call you Mr. President."
Biden's argument will face some skepticism from Iowa Democrats, especially as most of his main rivals make their own electability-focused pitch in the race's final stretch. Some of those opponents, in fact, are explicitly mocking Biden's explanation for his own electability, arguing his long record in public service and old-fashioned approach are political poison against Trump.
But Biden's pitch could still make inroads with some key caucus-goers, most of whom have yet to definitively settle on a candidate: A CBS News poll of Iowa found only 35% of them say they have "definitely" made up their mind about whom to support. And many voters continue to say that electability is their most pressing concern in selecting a candidate.
Many of them are like Kelli Soyer, a 47-year-old social worker who attended a Biden gathering Sunday in Des Moines. Soyer had spent the last year supporting almost every presidential hopeful except Biden, a list that included former candidates Steve Bullock and Cory Booker.
But she's now taking an unexpected late look at Biden _ primarily for one reason.
"For me, I just hope we can find someone to beat Donald Trump," said Soyer, who added that she might still support Pete Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar, but attended the event in part to judge Biden's electability up close.
Biden officials say they think that in the race's final weeks, they can win over many "soft" supporters of candidates like Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Warren who are both primary concerned with defeating Trump and consider Biden the most electable candidate.
"We have a persuadable universe out there that can actually come to us," said one Biden adviser, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about campaign strategy.
"There's just something about Iowa," the adviser added. "They do date, and then marry. They do get pragmatic because they take their responsibility very seriously."
One rival campaign aide acknowledged the threat, calling Biden a "safety school" for Democrats not enthusiastic about supporting Biden but still not yet convinced any of the other candidates can defeat Trump.
During a pair of campaign stops in Iowa on Sunday, Biden rarely made an explicit case for his electability, but the rationale for his strength was frequently embedded in his remarks. At an event co-hosted by the Des Moines NAACP, he talked up his long-term relationship with the African-American community, whom allies say will turn out in big numbers in November if he's the nominee. A few hours later, at a rally in rural Marshalltown, Biden told stories about his Catholic faith and defended the reputation of most police officers.
"Let me tell you something, you know, you hear about, everyone's probably heard about bad cops," Biden said, thanking a local police chief who had endorsed his campaign. "The vast majority are good, honorable, decent women and men who deserve to go home every night after doing their job."
Biden allies say his ability to win over Republicans is key to his chances of defeating Trump.
"There's nothing wrong with getting Republicans to vote for you," Allred said in Cedar Rapids. "That's called winning. There's nothing wrong with getting folks who didn't vote for Democrats in the past to vote for you or get new voters involved. That's how you win, that's how Obama won. That's how Bill Clinton won."
Recent polls of Iowa alternate between results showing Biden with a lead over Sanders, Sanders with a lead over Biden, and the two men effectively tied. The general trend in most recent surveys, however, show an unmistakable increase in support for Sanders.
The enthusiasm is evident during Sanders' rallies. On Friday, with Sanders stuck in Washington for the Senate impeachment hearings, a rally headlined by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez brimmed with supporters who filled much of a large hall on the campus of the University of Iowa. Many of those who attended waited up to three hours to see Ocasio-Cortez, who spoke at the end of a rally that lasted past 10:00 p.m. local time.
Two of Biden's events Sunday, meanwhile, felt distinctly lower-key: One, held in a small office, drew several dozen supporters (one attendee joked it felt as if there were more reporters than people from the neighborhood), while the "community event" in Marshalltown drew about 150 supporters.
Biden's electability claim is challenged increasingly often and vigorously on the trail. His opponents say, for example, that the absence of big crowds for Biden on the campaign trail is a sign of the fatal flaw of his electability argument: He can't motivate and energize enough voters.
Worse, they say the virtues that are supposed to let him appeal to moderate and independent Republicans _ a long record of bipartisanship and statesmanship in the Senate _ are actually liabilities. It's an argument they're increasingly bold about making on the campaign trail.
"Here's what's not safe," filmmaker and liberal advocate Michael Moore said Friday during the Sanders rally. "What's not safe is voting for somebody who voted to send our troops to the Iraq War. That's not safe. Let me remind you, everyone who voted for that war has lost when they've run, when they've run for president."
In interviews, voters also consistently mentioned another concern: his uneven performances during the Democratic debates.
"Sometimes, you see him thinking about what to say, and then he misspeaks," said Tim Armstrong, a 63-year-old retired teacher who plans to support Elizabeth Warren. "He has to go back and clean it up. He just doesn't seem to be as sharp as some of the other candidates."
"I'm worried about him being on the debate stage with Donald Trump," added Susie Poulton, a 57-year-old pediatric nurse who also plans to support Warren and worries that Biden "wouldn't be on track with his thoughts and speaking."
"Trump is going to exploit that," she said.
Both Armstrong and Poulton said they thought other candidates would make for stronger opponents to Trump.
Back in Cedar Rapids on Saturday, John Becker watched Allred talk about how Biden could take Texas right out from under Trump. The Texas congressman was speaking at the local Biden campaign office alongside Reps. Chrissy Houlahan and Abby Finkenauer, all swing-district lawmakers who said their own experience in battleground races led them to conclude Biden was the nominee Democrats needed in 2020.
It was a message the 58-year-old retiree wanted to hear: Becker, a precinct captain for the former vice president, said he thought Biden would be Trump's strongest opponent.
Asked what his message would be the night of the caucuses, when he would be arguing on behalf of Biden, Becker's response was direct.
"That's the most important thing," Becker said. "He can win all across the country."
