Former PM John Howard told Election Diary this week that he expected the race to tighten before May 21, but sources on both sides of the political divide are seeing little evidence of a shift in momentum away from Labor heading into the last week of the campaign.
Liberal insiders were left downcast after Anthony Albanese won Wednesday's leader debate, lamenting the lack of a "killer blow" on their main campaign theme of economic management.
In 2019, the polls tightened slightly after the campaign began and remained 51-49 or 52-48 in Labor's favour until polling day. This time the gap has remained between six and ten percentage points for months.
Some Liberals saw the TV debate and the PM's concession on Friday that not everyone liked his "bulldozer" approach as evidence he was struggling to connect this time with voters.
In contrast, Labor operatives are feeling more and more confident as the campaign rolls on into its final week.
Not surprisingly, Shortland MP Pat Conroy told ED that Albo had "smashed it out the park" during the debate, and retiring MP Joel Fitzgibbon said the PM looked like he'd "lost his mojo".
"You just have to look at the poll of undecided voters: Albo won 50 to 34," Conroy said.
"Even when Morrison was asked to say something he admired in Anthony Albanese, he couldn't say something nice for a minute."
Howard made a brief visit to a very quiet Morisset shopping strip on the day of the final leadership debate.
He said the campaign was "tough" and "very tight" but voters were starting to feel "uneasy about whether Albanese is up to the job".
"The latest polls are against the Coalition. They were against the Coalition before the last election. They tightened then," he said.
"I think they will tighten now, but it's a very tight election, and anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't know much about politics."
Asked whether he was disappointed in the lack of big ideas and reforms in modern-day politics, Howard said he didn't agree with the notion that the government had not made major changes.
"I don't accept that at all. The significant changes to the tax system, restructuring the income tax scales. That's a major reform.
"Twenty years ago, talking about nuclear submarines, geez, everyone would have been horrified."
Campaign weapon
The 82-year-old opted not to wear his trademark Wallabies tracksuit on the campaign trail, but his star power was evident as passers-by stopped to have a chat and a photo with the former PM.
"I've still got 'em," he said of the tracksuits.
Howard used to spend two weeks every summer on holidays in Hawks Nest with his family when he was PM and still visits the "very friendly" coastal hamlet.
He also remembered the day a (very) former editor of the Newcastle Herald published a notorious "Dear John" letter on page one with a map showing exactly where the PM was staying.
The 1998 article criticised Howard for not visiting Newcastle when BHP announced the steelworks were closing and invited readers to "pay him a visit too ... with a few beers and a bag of prawns".
Asked how he felt about the episode 24 years later, Howard said: "I think it's more important what did the locals make of it.
"They didn't appreciate it. They thought my family should have a quiet holiday but, anyway, all is forgiven. Long time ago. Carry no grudges."
Sorting it out
It appears Geoff Passfield was one of the United Australia Party candidates who junked their how-to-vote (HTV) cards last week.
Clive Palmer said last month that UAP would put the three major parties at the bottom of its HTVs and all incumbents last, but he has since preferenced incumbent Coalition MPs above Labor in marginal seats.
Before pre-poll started on Monday, local candidates from parties such as UAP, One Nation and Informed Medical Options Party discussed allocating their top preferences to each other.
ED has been told Passfield was none too happy when his how-to-vote cards for the seat of Hunter arrived with Nats candidate James Thomson at number three, above One Nation's Dale McNamara at four.
The move potentially would have helped the Nats stay above One Nation during the preference count.
UAP officials confirmed this week that some of their candidates had pushed back, and ED understands the party printed new HTVs in six seats, including Hunter.
The Passfield HTVs now have One Nation at four and the Nats at five.
