A YouGov poll has put Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives for the first time. After a terrible few weeks of election campaigning, the Tories are on 18% while Reform has edged ahead to 19%. The same poll gave Labour 37% and the Liberal Democrats 14%.
This news makes a great headline, but it actually means the Conservatives and Reform are essentially neck-and-neck in the polls. This is because all surveys are subject to errors, which are commonly plus or minus 3% in a typical poll.
This happens because even a well-conducted, probability-based survey can produce results which differ from a census of all voters. If Reform hits 21% in voting intentions and the Tories remain on 18%, statistical theory shows there is a 95% chance that Nigel Farage’s party would actually be ahead in the country.
