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Fortune
Fortune
Sydney Lake

Harris-Trump polls tighten, but PredictIt and Polymarket tell a different story

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debating (Credit: Getty Images—Win McNamee)

The highly anticipated U.S. presidential election is just 22 days away, and polls show an increasingly tighter race. Two national polls released Sunday show an ultra-close race with Vice President Kamala Harris just barely in the lead, while a third poll shows her tied with former President Donald Trump.

But prediction markets tell a different story. PredictIt shows Trump’s campaign in the lead as the 2024 presidential election winner. It also has the GOP winning the presidency and the electoral college margin. As of Monday afternoon, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction marketplace, also shows Trump has a better chance of winning the election on Nov. 5.

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