KEY POINTS
- Independent candidate RFK Jr. is tied with non-candidate Michelle Obama at 1%
- Some users believe Polymarket is "no longer a valid signal" for potential election results
- Others believe Polymarket figures are still accurate even with users "buying into Harris"
With around three months left before the U.S. elections, traders on Polymarket are heating up the race, and even as Vice President Kamala Harris has now tied with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, the decentralized prediction platform has been called out for alleged fake numbers.
Harris catches up
Polymarket data showed that on Wednesday night, Harris caught up with Trump's 49%, putting the candidates' odds of winning – at least among crypto traders – on a 50/50 scale. It is worth noting that the numbers keep changing as traders buy and sell cryptocurrencies to bet on future events.
Kamala Harris is now tied with Trump. pic.twitter.com/04dQx3kWBl
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 7, 2024
Last week, Harris' chances were at 45% while Trump's odds were at 53%. Two days before the Bitcoin 2024 conference kicked off in Nashville late last month, Trump's odds shot up as high as 64%, while Harris was far off with only 32%.
RFK Jr. not included?
Crypto users on X erupted after Polymarket posted the tied results. One user claimed that RFK Jr., a long-time Bitcoin advocate, "isn't even on your site."
On Polymarket's post, only Michelle Obama can be seen as another contender based on trader bets. However, on the event itself, Kennedy Jr. is included. His odds are tied with the former First Lady at 1%.
The nephew of former President John F. Kennedy on Wednesday called on his supporters to urge FOX News to be included in the next debate. He was disqualified from the first debate between Trump and then-Democratic candidate President Joe Biden in June. CNN said at the time that RFK Jr. did not meet the requirements necessary to take part in the presidential debate.
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) August 7, 2024
Crypto users doubt Polymarket numbers
Many commenters on Polymarket's post were doubtful of the latest numbers produced by the platform. One user said it now seems the platform "is no longer a valid signal," while another said crypto voters shouldn't "buy the fake hype."
One user posted a separate electoral map that showed completely different figures, and another said he once believed in Polymarket results but it has just become "a manipulation of reality."
Funny that's not what other electoral maps are showing. pic.twitter.com/uGrR6zIyVm
— Shidoqueen (@itsateach) August 8, 2024
For a once I believed but now it’s getting worse. For me it’s just a manipulation of reality. Like exit polls but it cost your pockets.
— Dhaliwal Harry (@dhaliwalhxrry) August 8, 2024
Others in Polymarket's defense
Some users expressed trust in Polymarket's results, with one user noting that "people are buying into Harris." The said user explained that he isn't voting for the Democratic presidential nominee and while it's "unfortunate" that some crypto traders are betting on Harris, it doesn't erase the fact that she is getting some support from crypto voters.
"So when Trump was winning, it was valid but now it's rugged?" one user asked a doubter. Several others had the same thoughts.
so when Trump was winning, it was valid but now it's rugged?
— 0xEthMaxi (@0xEthMaxi_) August 8, 2024
Where have I seen this before?
This tracks. The numbers no longer favor you, so it's fake news all the sudden. pic.twitter.com/L6ujISZxMN
— black_x_phillip🇺🇲🇺🇦 (@h8_deliciously) August 8, 2024
Given the rather pro-Trump bias among many people in crypto, does that mean her actual odds if winning are even higher?
— poordart (@poordart) August 7, 2024
State of PolitiFi tokens
Meanwhile, some Trump-themed PolitiFi tokens are still rallying despite Harris' odds on Polymarket on an uptrend. $MAGAA saw a 19.3% spike in the last 24 hours, while $DMAGA increased by 28%, as per data from CoinGecko.
Harris-based $KAMA, on the other hand, has been down by 3% in the past day, and has been down by nearly 32% in the last seven days.
