On Monday, Polymarket released data that revealed that Republican candidate Donald Trump is leading Democrat Kamala Harris by 10 percentage points in the swing state of Pennsylvania, after trailing the vice president by 5 points the prior month. A new set of polls by Quinnipiac University, revealed on Wednesday, show a very different scenario in the state, with Harris actually leading with 49% of the vote to Trump's 46%.
The new poll, however, is not all good news for Democrats as it also reveals Trump is making gains in two other Rust Belt states, taking small leads in Michigan (50% to 47%) and Wisconsin (48% to 46%), suggesting tight races as Election Day approaches. In Quinnipiac's poll conducted in mid-September, Harris held a lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan with the race essentially tied in Wisconsin.
"That was then, this is now," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. "The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt."
On key issues, the poll shows Trump leading Harris on the economy and immigration in all three states, while Harris has the edge on preserving democracy in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and on abortion in all three states.
However, a surprising new concern seems to be top of mind among voters in the region: the resurging conflict in the Middle East. "The widening threat of a war encompassing the Middle East elbows its way into the long list of issues both candidates would confront the day they are sworn in, with Trump ahead on this issue in Wisconsin and Michigan," said Malloy.
The poll also dove into who voters think they share the most values with, with Trump taking Michigan, Harris taking Pennsylvania and both of them splitting Wisconsin evenly.
In Michigan's Senate race, support has also narrowed, with Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers now tied at 48% each, a shift from Slotkin's 5-point lead in September. Democrats are maintaining leads in Senate races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where incumbent Democratic senators hold strong support.
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