In a recent survey conducted by Quinnipiac University after the Democratic National Convention, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a tight race among likely voters nationwide. The poll shows Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%, with the results falling within the margin of sampling error, indicating no clear frontrunner.
This survey marks the first time Quinnipiac has reported results among likely voters, making direct comparisons to previous polls from the institution challenging. Among political independents, Harris and Trump are tied at 45% each nationally. Notably, there is a significant gender gap in the findings, with women favoring Harris by 58% to 37%, while men lean towards Trump at 57% to 39%.
Harris holds leads among younger voters (52% to 39% in the 18-34 age group) and Black voters (75% to 20%). However, these margins are narrower compared to President Joe Biden's performance among 2020 voters based on exit polls. The survey also shows a tie between Trump and Harris among Hispanic voters, with both candidates receiving 48% support.
Enthusiasm among supporters is higher for Harris, with 75% of her backers expressing strong enthusiasm compared to 68% for Trump supporters. Trump is favored over Harris in handling the economy, inflation, immigration, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. On the other hand, Harris leads in addressing climate change, abortion, democracy preservation, and gun violence.
Both candidates are closely split on issues such as crime, national security crises, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US Supreme Court. The poll, conducted from August 23-27 via phone with 1,611 likely voters, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
