I think we can expect an emotional reaction from Wales against Australia on Saturday after their abject performance against Georgia.
The ignominy of that defeat will have hurt as it takes its place alongside the very darkest moments in Welsh rugby history.
The Wallabies arrive battered and bruised having already played four tight matches. They only have the bare bones left to pick from after a narrow loss in Dublin. I don’t know how much they’ve got left in the tank for this match.
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One could argue that Wayne Pivac is in a no-win situation, because even if Wales are victorious his position as head coach will remain perilous. A loss against this depleted Australia side is likely to be catastrophic for him.
Welsh rugby is riven with deep-seated faults. From top to bottom, there are problems. The inadequate system of governance, the paucity of young players coming through, the alarming status of regional rugby and the precarious financial position that underpins everything.
Despite these issues, there is no justification for Wales losing to Georgia. That loss was a failure of team preparation and tactical execution. In the second half, Wales looked utterly lost, devoid of a plan and impotent in attack.
I was very much in favour of Pivac taking over from Warren Gatland in 2019. In 2017, he had won the PRO12 final with the Scarlets by destroying Munster 46-22 and playing the most wonderful rugby. After that, things faltered a little as opposition teams worked out the Scarlets way in the seasons that followed, but they were still a decent side.
That was probably a red flag.
Pivac wanted to play a high-skill game with ball carries on the edges. It would require a radical change from the Gatland era. Improving skill levels and changing mindsets is hard, but I think everyone accepted that there would be a period of transition.
Unfortunately, Pivac’s style of play could not stand up to the harsh reality of Test match rugby. The greater line-speed, the intensity of the collisions and the granular detail in which teams get analysed meant that the tactics had to change.
But what Pivac hasn’t been able to do is settle on a different pattern of play in its place. They have talked about wanting to play with pace and move the ball around, yet they only seem to win matches when the game descends into a low quality arm-wrestle and they kick the leather off it.
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My diagnosis for the inadequacy in the second half against Georgia was that the team didn’t know what it was trying to do. On one level the players knew they should be doing more than repeatedly hoisting the ball up and chasing, but they didn’t quite know how to go about doing something else.
For me, that’s why the team seemed so flat and low energy; they weren’t sure what they were meant to be doing. It is an indictment of those senior players on the field who could not recognise what was needed and galvanise a response, but I thought it was more revealing of the confusion that has never been far from the surface for the best part of two years.
I have some sympathy for the position Pivac is in. He is forced to play an ageing team because there are so few players coming through. The standard of rugby in the regions has been woeful, so getting players up to Test match rugby is a massive task. But accepting all that, Wales should be able to beat Georgia.
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I suspect Wales will be far better this weekend, in the sense that we will see a motivated and passionate performance. I suspect that Wales will drive lineouts and chase kicks with fervour. They will come off the line hard in defence and we will see more urgency in broken play. I suspect that may be enough to create pressure, force mistakes and in likelihood, beat this Australian side.
If that is what happens, then Pivac will bought himself some time, but I’m not sure how much. Wales need to find an identity on the pitch; something the players buy into and suits their strengths as a collective. A style of play that becomes almost automatic in their minds so that they can concentrate on executing the skill in that moment rather than the current position of first having to decide whether they should run, kick or pass.
I cannot imagine that the coaches and the players will have discovered this new plan in the last few days since it has eluded them for so long.
If Wales lose, I cannot see how Pivac survives. If Wales win, he will stay until there is a debrief of the autumn series.
But it may well be that his future has already been decided. We shall have to wait and see.
Gwyn Jones is a part of S4C’s team for highlights of Wales v Australia, which will be shown at 7.30pm on Saturday. This weekend, S4C will also show three matches from the URC: Bulls v Ospreys (Saturday, 12.45pm), Lions v Dragons (Sunday, 1.45pm) and Sharks v Cardiff (Sunday, 4pm). English commentary available.
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