We were shocked when Wales lost to Italy under Wayne Pivac last year, yet most people are expecting Wales to lose this year under Warren Gatland, too.
That is the stark reality of the decline in Welsh rugby over the last 12 months.
Part of that analysis is due to Italy’s improvement, but the Azzurri are not favourites to beat anyone else in the tournament, so most of that juxtaposition is due to Wales’ own regression.
For years, there have been calls for perpetual wooden spooners Italy to play-off against Georgia for their right to stay in the Six Nations. Can you imagine if that initiative had been approved? Wales have just lost to Georgia in Cardiff and no-one would be confident of victory in Tbilisi.
It was hoped that Gatland would bring in stability and order to the fortunes of the national side, but that has been blown out of the water as the trajectory continues to plummet. There have been some considerable headwinds to add to the struggle for sure, but Wales are lower in the world rankings than they were when Pivac was sacked.
Those of you who have read and or endured this column over the years will no doubt be aware of my feelings regarding Warrenball, and my public pleadings with Gatland to develop some sort of attacking strategy that involved more than head down, backside up and then kick it.
It had been clear for years that there has been a conscious effort by World Rugby to make the game more entertaining. Every season the laws are changed slightly but there is a common theme that underpins each alteration. The governing body want to improve the product. They want more tries, they want exciting matches, they want a game that captures that floating sports fan’s attention.
They want a product that is growing in popularity that can demand more from broadcasters and sponsors.
Each law change has been introduced either to speed the game up or increase the amount of space on the field. These changes are motivated to aid the side in attack and hinder the team in defence.
The trend has been plain to see for years and I suspect we have reached a tipping point where it is almost impossible for a defensively-minded side to be able to shut down a competent opposition intent on playing with pace and keeping the ball in hand.
Even South Africa, the doyens of limited rugby, are on a journey to a more attacking mindset. Argentina, another bastion of the direct approach, are moving with the times.
England, on the back of a comfortable victory against Wales two weeks ago, are so dissatisfied with the quality of that performance that they have dropped their captain for a fly-half who can help the team score more tries. Owen Farrell out, Marcus Smith in.
The rest of the tier one teams are a long way down the road of having a game plan that has a method of scoring tries at its core.
Finally, we come to Italy, a side transformed under Kieran Crowley. Franco Smith began the process but Crowley has refined and progressed the team significantly.
Italy are a side that look to play with high tempo and skill. They look to keep possession initially, challenge the defence and if they fail to be productive, then they kick.
What has been so impressive about Italy has been the skill levels that have held up in the face of the French, Irish and English defences. They have scored twice the number of tries than Wales. But more than the raw statistics, they are a side that look to threaten defences with innovation and misdirection.
They are making maximum use of the advantage the laws give the teams in attack. There are enough weaknesses in their game to have prevented them from winning their opening matches, but they have really pushed the two best sides in the world.
Wales’ previous losses to Italy have been when the Italian pack, and back-row in particular, get on top and Wales have been unable to break their stranglehold. This feels different. This feels like the Italian players are more skilful and more inventive than the Welsh players based on what we have seen so far.
I refuse to accept that Italy have better rugby players than Wales. But if Wales continue to play in the same way that they have done so far, they will fall further behind the rest. The height of Wales’ ambition this season has been to engage teams in an arm-wrestle. It doesn’t work anymore, not against a decent side.
Are we really looking at another five years of this type of rugby?
So the big question is, can Gatland change? Will Gatland change? When asked previously if there is a Plan B to Warrenball, his response has been, ‘yes, do Plan A better’. He boasted in his autobiography that towards the end of his first stint with Wales he had duped everyone by claiming publicly to be embracing a more attacking style yet in truth he hadn’t changed a bit.
It is asking too much to see seismic changes in two weeks but if Wales are going to play a bit more rugby, we should see some small steps in that direction.
Gatland has a magnificent record as a coach. No one can deny that. But the last few years with the Chiefs, the Lions and now with Wales have been anything but magnificent.
His coaching legacy is secure. He has a history of proving his critics wrong, myself included, on many occasions. But for a man of such success, will his second tenure with Wales prove that he was yesterday’s man
Is he in danger of looking King Canute, refusing to accept that the game has moved on?
Gatland famously said when he stepped down as head coach in 2019 that he did not want to see Wales return to the doldrums of world rugby. Well, that is exactly where we are and Gatland is the coach. Navigating out of these waters may well be his biggest challenge yet.
I still believe that Wales have better rugby players than Italy. I think somehow, they will win and avoid a wooden spoon. I am not entirely sure how, but I have to believe that to keep some hope in the future.
Gwyn Jones is a part of S4C’s Clwb Rygbi Rhyngwladol team. S4C’s coverage of Italy v Wales gets underway at 1.30pm on Saturday. Also, watch coverage of Italy Under 20s v Wales Under 20s from 6.45pm on Friday night, English commentary available.
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