We were shocked when Wales lost to Italy under Wayne Pivac last year, yet most people are expecting Wales to lose this year under Warren Gatland, too.
That is the stark reality of the decline in Welsh rugby over the last 12 months.
Part of that analysis is due to Italy’s improvement, but the Azzurri are not favourites to beat anyone else in the tournament, so most of that juxtaposition is due to Wales’ own regression.