Wales are under a very different type of pressure this weekend compared to the game against Italy. Last Saturday was about avoiding the wooden spoon, this week it’s about avoiding a thumping.
France had been a sleeping giant for much of Warren Gatland’s first period as coach but they are back at the pinnacle of the game for his return. Their demolition of England was wonderful to watch. The only negative was the sense of foreboding that Wales may face something similar in Paris.
Wales were improved against Italy, their strategy worked well of getting the ball deep into the opposition’s territory and wait for them to make a mistake. Sound game management against a side pushing the limits of their abilities.
Wales managed to build a comfortable lead during the second half in Rome and I was hoping to see them use that buffer to allow them to express themselves in attack. I wanted to see Wales looking confident in keeping the ball through the phases and develop a rhythm or a shape in attack.
Unfortunately, that never seemed to happen and Wales ended the game desperately holding on the shirt tails of the Italian runners.
The dilemma facing Gatland in Paris is whether he chooses damage limitation approach rather than a more audacious attitude of actually trying to win.
Playing Louis Rees-Zammit at full-back over Leigh Halfpenny is a bold move.
But Dan Biggar starts at fly-half. If Wales believe Joe Hawkins is the next Dan Carter, then start him at 10. Gatland has also stuck with Adam Beard at lock, rather than give Rhys Davies a chance.
There is a danger that by putting too many inexperienced players in against such formidable opponents things could get messy very quickly. But Wales have looked so impotent in attack throughout this campaign you do think something radical needs to happen to change the status quo.
I suspect Wales will draw some inspiration from last year’s encounter in Cardiff. Despite France being firm favourites, they looked pretty disjointed that evening as they were drawn into the dreaded arm-wrestle. The game was slow and low in quality and Wales had their chances to pinch it, narrowly losing 13-9 in the end.
However, I am pretty sure that Fabian Galthié will be equally aware of what happened last season and will have worked on keeping the tempo and attacking intent as a priority for Saturday.
France must be thinking that they need a bonus point win to put as much pressure on Ireland as possible. They must also believe that the only way they could lose this weekend is if they allow game to become a scruffy tussle. They will want to avoid prolonged kicking battles, they won’t want too many re-set scrums or slow driving mauls. The key to France will be to inject pace into the game at every opportunity.
It may mean putting themselves under a little extra pressure at times, it may mean more willingness to play from deep and to look for offloads to keep the ball moving. Luckily for France the second half in Twickenham was exactly what they want the game to be against Wales. Loose, fast and open.
I get the impression that the Six Nations has been a soul searching experience for Gatland. The hallmark of his previous tenure was consistency in selection, good discipline and a sound defence. Instead, it has been wholesale changes in each game, shocking penalty counts, a passive and porous defence and two record defeats.
If Gatland knows what his best team is, he is hiding it well.
I think Gatland is hoping to just get through this final match against France without too much damage being inflicted and then he will concentrate on getting the squad into the best physical condition he can over the summer. He will be hoping that if he can get them into shape they will be able to compete better come the World Cup.
I cannot conceive of a way that Wales can win in Paris. France are superior in every facet of the game. I worry about their forward power, the dynamism of their ball carriers, the blend of power and subtlety of their backs and the influence of the world’s best rugby player, the mesmeric Antoine Dupont.
No matter who takes the field for Wales, what I want to see is aggression, determination and a willingness challenge France. Anything other than that and France will smash Wales off the park. Wales must make France respect them, frustrate them, and make them earn every point.
France had one of those special days last weekend where every pass stuck and every move worked. They will expect to re-capture that same feeling this weekend but no two games are the same and Wales must not allow them easy opportunities early on.
Who will win France v Wales? Have your say here
I would like to think that after eight weeks together, we will see something constructive in attack from Wales. A hint at the type of rugby Alex King has been working on. Wales will have to hold onto the ball against France, they cannot continually kick it away to this team, surely.
Wales lost by 24 points against Ireland and 28 points against Scotland. If you offered me losing by 15 against France, I would bite your hand off.
It is the reality of where Wales are. How our expectations have changed!
S4C's coverage of France v Wales gets underway at 2pm on Saturday. Also, watch coverage of France Under 20s v Wales Under 20s from 7.45pm on Sunday night, English commentary available.
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