Things had been looking pretty grim across all levels of Welsh rugby in recent months, but the past two rounds of European competition have been a welcome tonic ahead of the festive derbies.
With the regions occupying three of the bottom four places in United Rugby Championship, with the Dragons, Scarlets and Ospreys collectively recording just five wins from 27 matches, one might have expected the worst in Europe.
But the unexpected success in the first two rounds of the Champions Cup and Challenge Cup has suddenly reignited the anticipation for these hugely important derby matches.
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The Ospreys have made the biggest transformation. They produced their finest performance in years to comprehensively beat Montpellier last weekend. Their defence was superb and they matched the French champions for physicality. But it was their adroit use of possession which enabled them to build a lead.
They should never have lost to Leicester the previous week considering the extent to which they dominated the scrum. But the difference against Montpellier, notwithstanding the eradication of silly penalties, was the presence of Owen Williams at fly-half.
He was calm and confident. He gave direction and a purpose to the industry of the pack. He opened the game up when it was needed and got the best out of his threequarters. If Williams can demonstrate the same control on Boxing Day, the Ospreys will be strong favourites against their West Walian rivals.
It has been a painful season so far for the Scarlets, but two wins on the bounce in Europe may spark something of a revival. They have three of the best and most highly-paid forwards in Wales in the shape of Vaea Fifita, Sam Lousi and Sione Kalamafoni. Throw Ken Owens to that and there is plenty of carrying power to set a plan around.
They’ve got Scott Williams back in midfield alongside the developing Sam Costelow, so there are reasons to be positive ahead of the trip to the Swansea.com Stadium.
Derbies are notoriously tight and edgy affairs and this will be no different. I think the unit skills of the Ospreys forwards will be enough to secure a victory in the end. Potential bolters for the Welsh squad are Owen Williams and Morgan Morris. Morris had been cruelly overlooked by Pivac, who preferred hybrid back-rowers instead of genuine number 8s.
The early game on Boxing Day is the east Wales derby. The Dragons have improved so much since Dean Ryan was replaced by Dai Flanagan. Ryan was like a lead weight around them where Flanagan is raising them to new heights. Bradley Roberts embodies the mentality at Rodney Parade; he is aggressive and combative. He will not be second best to anyone and that spirit is coming through in their performances.
The Dragons have try scorers out wide and some touch players across the backline. Their problems have often started in the scrum but if they can get out of that department unscathed they can be very feisty opponents. I used to hate playing at Rodney Parade. The crowd felt so close and they’re on your back from the start. They will fancy their chances for the visit of Cardiff.
Dai Young is no stranger to the intimidating atmosphere when playing in Newport. But he has plenty of reasons to be unafraid after recent results: an excellent win in South Africa, two comprehensive victories in Europe and a side that is beginning get to grips with what its strengths are.
Solid enough in the set-piece, Cardiff have a team that is comfortable playing a high-pace, high-skill game. Forwards handle and carry well. They have dynamic power when needed and there is experience running through the spine of the team.
Thomas Young is piling up the man of the match trophies and keeps producing momentum-changing moments. They have a good sprinkling of ‘difference makers’ too in Taulupe Faletau, Josh Adams and Tomos Williams.
Rhys Carre will have a point to prove as well as he tries to return to the international stage. On form, Cardiff should win but I am tipping the Dragons to pinch this derby.
The other bit of news which will have brought some cheer to the festive proceedings is the return of Warren Gatland. I am no fan of Warrenball but I fully expect Wales to be tougher to beat and more consistent than they were.
They say you should never go back but I can’t blame Gatland for returning. There appeared no likelihood of him getting the New Zealand job in the foreseeable future; he was well down the list back home.
The Wales job is a ‘no lose’ scenario for him. Gatland will not get the blame if Wales continue to struggle, the fault will be at the feet of the ailing regions and the inadequate player development throughout Wales, leaving him with a dearth of talent to work with. However, he will get all the credit for any success that Wales do achieve.
Good luck to him. We desperately need the national side to be successful so that it can help finance the rest of the game.
Hopefully we can enjoy the Christmas derbies but for those at the sharp end of the game there will be little rest. There needs to be resolution on the funding to the regions and the 60-cap rule as soon as possible.
Maybe Santa has something up his sleeve.
Gwyn Jones is a part of S4C’s Clwb Rygbi team. S4C will show coverage of Ospreys v Scarlets from 5pm on Boxing Day and Scarlets v Dragons from 5pm on New Year’s Day. S4C will also show RGC 1404 v Merthyr from 5.30pm on Tuesday, December 27. English commentary will be available.
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