Guatemala’s presidential election has thrown up a major surprise with the centrist Bernardo Arévalo claiming a spot in the second round amid growing anger over political corruption and the erosion of democracy in Central America’s most populous nation.
Alongside El Salvador and Nicaragua, Guatemala is one of several Central American countries which has taken an alarming authoritarian turn in recent years, with activists denouncing growing attacks on the media and more than two dozen judges and prosecutors forced into exile.
Earlier this month, one of the country’s leading journalists, José Rubén Zamora, was jailed for six years in what was widely seen as a political witch-hunt.
On Sunday, more than 5 million voters turned out to choose their next leader with three establishment figures widely tipped as the frontrunners including Sandra Torres, a veteran politician and former first lady who has faced corruption accusations, and Zury Ríos, the daughter of the former military dictator Efraín Ríos Montt.
However, it was centre-left Arévalo, 64, who unexpectedly grabbed the headlines – and a place in a runoff scheduled for 20 August – by claiming second place with about 12% of the vote. He will face Torres, who came first with 15%, and hopes to become Guatemala’s first female leader in what is her third presidential run. An even greater number of voters, about 17%, spoiled their votes in what analysts and Arévalo backers saw as a clear sign of public frustration with the country’s political elites.
“We believe voters were fed up and tired of a political system which has been co-opted by the same-old groups and were looking for a decent alternative,” Arévalo told a press conference, thanking voters for their “courage”.
The unforeseen outcome prompted scenes of elation in Arévalo’s headquarters, where supporters of his centre-left anti-corruption movement Semilla (Seed) chanted: “You can see it, you can feel it! Bernardo Presidente!”
Ana Raquel Aquino, a human rights lawyer from Guatemala City, was among those celebrating. “Personally, I am very happy. But for my country, more than joy, it gives me peace,” the 31-year-old said. “It is a positive shock but the most difficult part is coming, we are going to see super-conservative people supporting Sandra Torres,” she added.
Arévalo is the son of Guatemala’s first democratically elected president, Juan José Arévalo, who governed from 1945 to 1951, giving the result huge symbolism against a backdrop of democratic decay.
“I do think, for now, that it is good news and that everyone who hopes for the restoration of democracy in Guatemala should be breathing a sigh of relief – even if it is not a complete one,” said Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“The clearest message to me is that, try as they might, the established political interests in Guatemala could not suppress this demand for change or for an outsider who would really shake up the political system.”
Three prominent candidates were sidelined from Sunday’s election after controversial decisions from electoral authorities. Freeman feared Arévalo could suffer a similar fate between now and the second round. “I think there’s a serious chance that the powers that be in Guatemala will try to eliminate him from the running, legally. I just don’t think we can count that out,” he said.
“But let’s say that he does get to the runoff with Torres, I think his chances could be pretty good actually because you are just seeing that such a large share of Guatemalan society rejects the status quo [and] wants someone different – and now he is going to have a platform he has never had before to spread his message,” Freeman added.
Gabriel Wer, the director of civil society group 25A Institute, said the “totally unexpected” result reflected public exhaustion with what they considered Guatemala’s self-serving political establishment. “Semilla represents the commitment to stop this system of rampant corruption that has been operating in a voracious manner in recent years,” Wer said, voicing concern over possible efforts to “criminalize” Arévalo and his allies before the second round.
“I’m concerned about the reaction of sectors of the extreme right, which have ties to the economic and military elite, who are not at all happy with the results and will do everything possible to prevent Bernardo Arévalo from assuming the presidency,” Wer said.
