More Australians intend to vote no than yes in the voice referendum on 14 October, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
But the new poll has recorded the first positive shift towards yes in several months, as the historic referendum campaign enters the decisive stretch.
The latest snapshot of voter opinion suggests 49% of respondents intend to vote no (down two points in a fortnight), 43% will vote yes (up two points), with 8% unsure. These movements are inside the Guardian Essential poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus three points.
With early voting now under way, the “hard no” cohort in the poll of 1,125 respondents outnumbers the “hard yes” cohort (42% to 30%). A further 13% characterise their position as “soft yes” and 7% say “soft no.”
Anthony Albanese joined yes campaigners on the hustings in Tasmania on Monday, declaring that thousands of one-on-one conversations between voice supporters and ordinary voters over the next two weeks could swing wavering Australians to cast a yes vote.
“Every conversation that people have will be critical and that’s how this referendum will be won, with those one-on-one conversations at the front door, on the phones, around kitchen tables, outside P&C’s [Parents and Citizens Associations], on the school pick-ups, in workplaces,” the prime minister said.
The Guardian Essential poll suggests 28% of voters remain in play, characterising their position as either soft no, soft yes or undecided. Just under a third of respondents (29%) say they still don’t feel well informed about the Indigenous voice to parliament proposal.
Given every opinion poll in the country points to a likely no result on 14 October, almost half (49%) of Guardian Essential respondents expect the voice to be rejected by a majority of Australians, while 26% predict it will be endorsed and 25% say they aren’t sure.
The survey indicates a majority of voters (66%) under the age of 34 continue to support the constitutionally enshrined First Nations advisory body sought by Indigenous leaders.
But support for the voice declines precipitously with age – 43% of respondents between 35 and 54 identify themselves as yes voters, and only 25% of voters over the age of 55.
No voters and respondents still on the fence were given a series of prompts this week intended to draw out their reasoning.
About 42% of respondents agree with the no campaign’s contention that the voice will “divide Australia in the constitution on the basis of race”, while 26% say there is not enough detail about the voice proposal, 18% say the advisory committee will make little difference in the lives of Indigenous people and 14% say the voice will give Indigenous people “rights and privileges that other Australians don’t have”.
Albanese on Monday declared Australians could choose to vote no and have “more of the same” but “we can do better”.
The prime minister acknowledged that fear campaigns “can be pretty powerful, but no country ever enlarged itself and got better through fear campaigns”.
“What enlarges a country is optimism and hope for the future, and a no vote is about Australia shrinking in on ourselves,” he said.
Mixed views on handling of Covid
As well as tracking sentiment on the voice, the Guardian Essential survey also asked respondents about their views on the management of the Covid-19 pandemic by the levels of government.
These questions follow the government’s recent decision to establish an inquiry into the management of the pandemic. The inquiry has faced a significant backlash because it excludes unilateral actions by state governments from its scope.
The poll results indicate more Australians feel the federal government did a good job of dealing with the pandemic than a bad job (42% of respondents say good and 30% say bad). Views about the performance of the states are mixed, ranging from 65% support in Western Australia to 39% in Victoria.
A majority (52%) believes Australia’s experience with Covid-19 means we will be well prepared for another pandemic in the future.
While a majority of respondents think Australia is well placed to manage the next public health emergency, most (62%) also agree with the proposition that the Albanese government should have established a more wide-ranging inquiry capable of examining all actions by all levels of government over the past few years.
When asked about the pandemic death toll, views are mixed. 46% of respondents say Australia did well to limit the number of deaths from coronavirus, 38% think too many people died, and 16% say they don’t believe the official death toll because the risks of Covid-19 were “overstated” (34% of respondents who hold this view vote for independents and micro parties).
