More Australian men would vote for Donald Trump than vice-president Kamala Harris, and a majority of men and women support key elements of his platform including tariffs and deportation of illegal immigrants.
Those are the results of the latest Guardian Essential poll of 1,131 voters finding that the strong gender divide in Trump and Harris’ support is mirrored in Australia.
Overall, more Australians (41%) would vote Harris for president, if they were eligible, than would support Trump (33%). A further 7% would vote for “another candidate”, 13% “would not vote” and 7% are unsure.
Among Australian men, Trump leads by 44% to Harris’ 36%; while among women Harris leads 45% to Trump’s 23%.
More respondents said that if Harris were elected president of the United States this would be good for Australia (32%) than said it would be bad (26%).
If Trump were victorious in the election, to be held Tuesday in the US with results on Wednesday Australian time, more said this would be bad (44%) than good (28%) for Australia.
A majority of respondents agreed with statements summarising Trump’s policies (without mentioning him by name), including “globalisation has gone too far, we need to protect local workers with tariffs on foreign goods” (60% agree).
Almost 60% of respondents agreed with each of the statements that “government is fundamentally corrupt and politics has been taken over by vested interests”, “a deep state of unelected officials has too much control” and “illegal immigrants should be deported”.
Opposition to the Indigenous voice and politicisation of Palestinian visas has led to Labor labelling the Liberal leader, Peter Dutton, “divisive” and progressive commentators likening his tactics to Trump’s.
But the Albanese government’s bill to force unlawful non-citizens to cooperate with their deportation and black-ban visa applications from countries that don’t accept involuntary removals has also attracted comparisons to Trump from the Greens.
In Australia, Trump has support from sections of the Liberal-National Coalition including Matt Canavan and Alex Antic, and rightwing minor parties including One Nation and the United Australia party senator, Ralph Babet.
The poll found Labor and Greens supporters were much more likely to support Harris than Trump, with Harris up 55% to 22% among Labor and 54% to 18% among Greens voters.
Trump enjoyed a lead over Harris among Coalition voters, 47% to 33%, and minor parties and independents, 44% to 27%.
However, the poll could spell trouble for importation of US-style culture wars over abortion. Essential found that most respondents wanted abortion to be legal “in all cases” (41%) or “most cases” (38%). Only about one-in-five wanted abortion to be illegal “in most cases” (14%) or “in all cases” (7%).
On Monday, the Australian Financial Review reported that the foreign minister, Penny Wong, and defence minister, Richard Marles, have been contacting Trump contacts to prepare for the possibility of a Trump victory.
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, appeared to confirm the report by saying “we engage with people across the US political system”.
“When I was in the United States, I met with the Republicans, I met with the Democrats, I met with people in Congress, people in the Senate,” he told ABC Radio.
Asked if Australia would need to replace former prime minister Kevin Rudd as ambassador if Trump were elected, Albanese replied: “Australia decides who our ambassador is and Mr Rudd is doing a terrific job.”
In May, Trump was found guilty of all 34 counts of falsifying business records in a criminal hush-money scheme to influence the outcome of the 2016 election.
Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage:
US election 2024 live updates: latest polls, results and news
How the electoral college works
Lessons from the key swing states
What’s at stake in this election
