The Albanese government has a commanding lead over the Coalition, 53% to 42% in two-party-preferred terms, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
Taken after the release of Labor’s first full-year budget on 9 May, the poll also found that less than one quarter of respondents (24%) think the budget will be good for them personally, although that is up eight points since the same question was asked in November, after the October budget.
The poll of 1,080 voters, released on Tuesday, finds a further 5% of voters are undecided. The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, continued to record a strong approval rating, with a majority (54%) approving of his performance.
Guardian Essential’s two-party-preferred “plus” measure is a change in methodology adopted after the 2019 election to highlight the proportion of undecided voters in any survey, providing accuracy on the limits of any prediction.
The poll found Labor leading the Coalition 60% to 38% among those aged 18 to 34, 56% to 39% among those 35 to 54 and trailing 45% to 48% among the over 55s.
Asked which groups the budget would be good for, a bare majority (51%) said it would benefit “people receiving government payments”, followed by people on lower incomes (42%), the well-off (41%) and older Australians (37%).
About one-third of voters thought the budget will help Australian families (35%) and women (33%). About one quarter said it would help younger Australians (26%) and average working people (25%).
The Coalition has attacked the budget for not doing enough to relieve inflationary pressures after the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, revealed a projected surplus of $4bn in 2022-23.
But the poll found when asked about the surplus more voters think the “government should have used the money to provide direct support for people under cost of living pressure” (59%) than said it has “done the right thing in delivering a budget surplus that will ease pressure on inflation” (41%).
The budget’s main items were a $5.7bn investment in Medicare, electricity bill relief of up to $500 for households, a $40-a-fortnight raise in jobseeker and 15% boost to the maximum rate of rent assistance.
Despite saying those receiving government payments would do well out of the budget, just 19% of respondents said the budget would reduce poverty, although this figure increased to 31% among those aged 18 to 34.
Respondents were pessimistic about the budget’s effect in other areas, with only one-third (33%) saying it would create jobs, 29% saying it would reduce debt, 26% saying it will reduce cost-of-living pressures and 46% said it would “create long-term problems that will need to be fixed in the future”.
The Essential poll found support for the Indigenous voice in the constitution was steady, easing back one point to 59% and those opposed rising one point to 41%.
Support is stronger among women, who back the voice 62% to 38%, than men who back it 56% to 44%. Support is weakest among the over-55s who oppose the voice 60% to 40% and Coalition voters who oppose it 55% to 45%.
The voice has majority support in most states, with more than 60% backing it in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia; although support is slimmer in Western Australia, where the yes side leads 52% to 48%. The only state opposed is Queensland, with 51% against the voice and 49% in favour.
In the wake of King Charles the third’s coronation, the poll also found majority support for Australia to become a republic, with 54% saying if there were a referendum on becoming a republic they would vote yes, against 46% who said they would vote no.
On the republic, the sample was split between those who were a hard yes (29%), hard no (27%), soft yes (25%) and soft no (20%).
Albanese recorded majority approval, with 54% of respondents approving of the job he is doing as prime minister, up three points, and 35% disapproving, down two, and 11% say they don’t know how he is faring.
The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, was steady at 36% who approve of the job he is doing, 45% who disapprove and 19% who don’t know.
