Labor appears to have lost ground in the opening week of the federal election campaign according to the latest Guardian Essential poll, but a majority of respondents still think Anthony Albanese will be Australia’s next prime minister.
The latest survey of 1,020 respondents shows Labor’s standing in the two-party preferred “plus” measure is down three points in a fortnight, and there has been a two point increase in the number of undecided voters. But 55% of respondents believe Labor will win on 21 May.
Voting intention figures, calculated by Guardian Essential, now express the head-to-head metric of the major party contest as two-party preferred “plus”, rather than the standard two-party preferred measure. This change in methodology, adopted after the 2019 election, highlights the proportion of undecided voters in any survey, providing accuracy on the limits of any prediction.
In the latest survey, the Coalition’s primary vote is 37%, Labor 35%, the Greens 9%, One Nation 3%, independents and others 5% and United Australia party 4%. On the two-party preferred “plus” measure, Labor is on 47% (down three points in a fortnight), the Coalition on 46% (up one point) with 7% of respondents undecided (up two points).
In the poll taken a fortnight ago, the Coalition’s primary vote was 37%, Labor 36%, the Greens 10%, independents and others were on 5%, the United Australia party 3% and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party 4%. On the two-party preferred “plus” measure Labor was on 50% (up from 48%), the Coalition on 45% (up from 44%), with 5% of respondents undecided (down from 7%).
Morrison is campaigning on the risks of a change of government in an uncertain environment while Albanese is telling voters he represents safe change.
In responses to questions that test the salience of that messaging, just under half (48%) of respondents believe it is time for Morrison to go, while 34% say the Coalition deserves another turn. But 46% of respondents also believe Australia is currently going in the right direction, with 37% saying we are on the wrong track.
Morrison’s approval with voters in the Guardian Essential sample has remained steady over the past fortnight, although the prime minister is still in negative territory. More voters disapprove of the prime minister (48%) than approve of him (44%), with 8% undecided.
Albanese has taken more of a hit, with the Labor leader’s approval (41%) down two points in the fortnight. This is a negative movement inside the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus three points. But disapproval of the Labor leader has increased from 36% to 41%, which is a five point negative movement.
A larger percentage of voters also remain undecided about the Labor leader (17% compared with Morrison’s 8%) although the trend suggests more voters are coming off the fence about Albanese (23% were undecided about him back in January).
This latest data also suggests there is a gender gap when it comes to approval of the two leaders. Just over half of men in the sample (51%) approve or strongly approve of the job the prime minister is doing compared with 38% of female respondents.
When it comes to Albanese, men also lead women when it comes to approval of his performance (45% to 38%) but women are significantly more likely to be undecided about the Labor leader (23% of women do not have a view, compared with 11% of male respondents).
Morrison leads Albanese on the poll’s better prime minister metric 40% to 36%, with 24% of respondents still on the fence at the end of the second week of the campaign. Half of Guardian Essential respondents say they have been paying attention to developments on the hustings – although 15% of respondents report they are paying no attention at all.
The latest survey suggests more voters trust Labor than the Coalition to manage the components of the caring economy – Medicare, childcare, aged care and the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
Conversely, more voters think interest rates, debt and unemployment would be higher under a Labor government. But more voters also believe a Labor government would deliver higher wages and more significant cost of living relief.
Both Morrison and Albanese have battled cross-currents in the opening sorties of the campaign. The Labor leader stumbled early, forgetting the unemployment rate and the official cash rate, while the prime minister has battled rolling controversy about his captain’s pick in the seat of Warringah, Katherine Deves, and a backlash about his refusal to revive a federal integrity commission in the next parliament unless Labor backs the Coalition’s model.
