The Coalition has pulled narrowly ahead of Labor for the first time since the election in the Guardian Essential poll, with a big hit to Anthony Albanese’s trustworthiness a further cause for concern to the government.
In a sign the Albanese government’s poll honeymoon may have drawn to an end and only days out from a byelection in the Melbourne seat of Dunkley, the latest poll shows Coalition leads with 48% of the two-party-preferred vote, ahead of Labor on 47%. A further 4% are undecided, according to the poll of 1,105 people.
On primary votes, the Coalition leads on 35%, with Labor down to 30%, followed by the Greens (13%), independents or other minor parties (8%), One Nation (7%) and the United Australia party (2%).
Despite earlier polls showing support for Labor’s decision to redirect the stage-three tax cuts more towards low- and middle-income earners, the change of position appears to have hit Albanese’s personal favourability.
Just over a third (37%) said that Albanese was trustworthy, down 15 points since March 2023, while the number of respondents who said the prime minister was visionary (34%) was also down 12 points.
A majority of voters said Albanese “changes his opinion depending on who he thinks is listening” (65%, up 11 points since March), is “out of touch with ordinary people” (60%, up 10 points) and “narrow-minded” (53%, up 17 points).
The poll found 47% of respondents disapprove of Albanese’s performance, compared with 42% who approve.
Dutton’s net favourability is similar, with 44% disapproving and 40% approving of the job he is doing as opposition leader. Dutton rates similarly to Albanese on trustworthiness (38%), narrow-mindedness (52%) and being out of touch (58%).
Dutton was considered to be more aggressive, with 50% describing the opposition leader that way compared with just 29% for Albanese.
Albanese beat Dutton on a series of less conventional metrics of popularity, with an 11-point lead on the leader you “would most like to have babysit your children”, an eight-point lead in “more likely to stop and help if your car was stranded” and “most likely to go to the pub for a beer with”.
But Dutton was favoured to give financial advice by 31% of respondents, up nine points on Albanese’s 22%.
A majority of voters (56%) thought there had been no change in the Coalition under Dutton, on culture in the party and behaviour of politicians, policies and vision for the country. Just a quarter (25%) said the Coalition had changed for the better on these metrics, while about 20% said they had changed for the worse.
While Labor is favoured to handle wages by 41% of respondents to 28% for the Coalition and also fared better with voters on climate change (31% to 25%), the Coalition now leads on reducing cost-of-living pressures (33% to 28%) and keeping borders secure (41% to 23%).
Although Labor MPs insist the latter is not being raised with them as a major vote changer, the poll found two-thirds of people (66%) were aware of a recent boat arrival in Western Australia and three in five (61%) were aware of releases from immigration detention as a result of the NZYQ high court decision.
A majority (59%) said Labor was moving too slowly to put former detainees back into detention and did not have suitable policies on asylum seekers; a slim majority (51%) went as far as to say the Albanese government is “losing control of the borders”.
But Dutton’s stance to vote against more workplace rights for casuals, labour hire and gig workers was less popular, with 35% opposed and 30% in favour.
Since Dutton announced the Coalition would repeal the right to disconnect, Labor has targeted him in question time by arguing he wants Australians to “work longer, for less”.
Although there is no detail yet on Labor’s propose to criminalise doxxing, there was strong support (62%) for this measure when respondents were told the “government is intending to make the public release of personally identifiable data (phone numbers, addresses, social media details) with malicious a criminal offence, known as doxing”. Just 19% opposed new doxxing laws.
Voters were also in favour of random alcohol and drug testing of politicians, with 75% in support and just 8% opposed.
According to separate polling released on Tuesday, about four in five Australians support a ceasefire in Gaza.
The YouGov polling of 1,060 Australian adults was commissioned by humanitarian organisations, including Plan International Australia, Oxfam Australia and Caritas Australia. When asked “Do you support a ceasefire in Gaza?” 81% of respondents agreed and 19% disagreed.
Asked whether they supported “the Australian Government taking more action to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza”, 53% said yes, 25% said no and 22% said they did not know.
However, only 30% of respondents said support for a ceasefire would be an issue they would consider at the next election, compared with 43% who said they would not.
