Almost twice as many Australians believe the government should position the country as a middle power in Asia – a view touted by the former prime minister Paul Keating – than those who say it should be “an ally of the US”.
That is the result of Guardian’s latest Essential poll of 1,126 voters, which also found that twice as many Australians support Israel withdrawing from Gaza (37%) than believe Israel is justified in continuing its military action (18%).
The poll was conducted as Melbourne played host to leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), a meeting that stirred debates about whether Australia has aligned itself too closely with the United States in opposition to China through the Aukus nuclear submarine acquisition.
Asked what Australia’s role in global affairs should be, 38% said it should be “an independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region”, a view often associated with Keating, who in 1995 said Australia must find security “in” not “from” Asia.
Just one in five (20%) said Australia should be “primarily an ally of the US”. One quarter (25%) said it should “do its best not to engage in world affairs” and a further 17% were unsure.
After the foreign minister, Penny Wong, raised concerns about destabilising and dangerous actions in the South China Sea, Keating said the Malaysian prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, had “dropped a huge rock into Wong’s pond by telling Australia not to piggyback Australia’s problems with China on to Asean”.
In the poll, two-thirds (67%) of Australians said the relationship with China is “complex” and must be “managed”, 20% said it is a “threat to be confronted” and 13% described it as a “positive opportunity to be realised”.
A majority of respondents described themselves as “concerned” about actual and possible events including:
China’s expansion into the South China Sea and Taiwan (65%);
Israel’s military action in Gaza (63%);
Donald Trump winning the 2024 US election (57%); and
The death of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s main political rival, Alexei Navalny (56%).
Most respondents agreed that global instability made trade more expensive (68%) and would undermine efforts to solve problems including climate change (57%). Fewer than half said it had a negative impact on their own wellbeing (46%).
Asked about Israel’s military action in Gaza, just 18% supported it continuing, 20% said Israel should agree to a temporary ceasefire, 37% said Israel should withdraw “permanently” and 24% were unsure.
Respondents aged 18 to 34 were more likely to say Israel should withdraw permanently, the view of 44% in that age bracket, and were less likely to support continuing military action, the view of just 13%.
More voters favoured Labor to handle Australia’s relationship with the Asia-Pacific, 34% to the Coalition’s 29%, and 38% said there was no difference between the major parties.
The Coalition enjoyed a large advantage on protecting Australia’s borders and national security, 36% to Labor’s 28%, with 37% saying there is no difference.
The two major parties were about even on handling conflicts including Ukraine and Gaza – 29% favouring the Coalition, 27% favouring Labor and 44% saying it made no difference.
When respondents were told Australia spent $55.6bn on defence, the fourth-highest budget item, exactly half (50%) said this was “about the right amount”. Slightly more said it was “too much” (29%) compared with those who said it was “not enough” (20%).
Two-thirds of Australians (66%) say the world is either very divided (29%) or somewhat divided (37%). A quarter (24%) said it was neither united nor divided, and just 10% described it as united.
Voters continue to report financial difficulties with 14% describing themselves as in “serious difficulty” and 40% “struggling a bit”. Just 32% described themselves as “secure”, down three points from February, with 13% responding they are “comfortable”.
After carving up stage-three tax cuts to benefit low- and middle-income earners, the government has signalled it will continue to offer cost-of-living relief in the lead-up to the May budget.
