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National

Groom was the LNP's second-safest seat in Queensland, but the swing shows change

Toowoomba is the largest city in the seat of Groom, known for its flowers and conservative voting. (ABC Southern Qld: Peter Gunders)

As the corflutes are packed away from the streets of Toowoomba, you could be forgiven for thinking independent candidate Suzie Holt won the election, and not polled fourth, the way she talks.

"I see it as a huge win, because it sends a message that the people of Groom want to be on the national agenda. We want to be listened to and heard," she said.

While 70 per cent of federal seats in Queensland remain in LNP hands, there are projected swings against the LNP in all but three seats.

Throughout regional Queensland, seats like Capricornia (6.7 per cent), Flynn (6.5 per cent), and Wright (3.7 per cent) recorded projected swings to Labor in two-party preferred terms, representing a shift in a state that only three years ago helped sweep the Coalition back into power.

The 'blue wave' that washed through the sunshine state in 2019 has now washed away.

Suzie Holt is projected to claim 8.8 per cent of the first preference vote in Groom.

Headlines this week have been dominated by 'teal' independents in the south and a 'greenwash' in Brisbane, but Ms Holt believes the gains made in traditional LNP strongholds tell a third, sometimes overlooked, story of safe seats.

"Groom needs an unofficial opposition," Ms Holt, a former LNP voter who claimed a projected 8.8 per cent of the first preference vote, said.

"We're going to hold our federal member to account."

If Ms Holt is ready to be a 'shadow member' for the region, she's got company.

Gen Allpass was the recipient of that "biggest swing" to Labor in Groom.

"I will be making noise," she said.

"We have to keep the member accountable, and my challenge to [Garth Hamilton] is that he will need to do exactly the opposite of what he did the last term to keep his seat."

Soul searching underway

While excited to retain his seat, Mr Hamilton knows there is work to do for the LNP on a wider level and locally.

"We do need to rebuild, there's no two ways about that," he admitted.

"I think that's a perfectly good ambition for us to have to restore our credibility as a strong centre-right party."

Garth Hamilton was able to retain his seat, despite suffering a double-point swing against him in the first preference vote. (ABC Southern Qld: Elly Bradfield)

How the LNP defines 'centre-right' is critical, according to political scientist Geoff Cockfield.

"They have a big dilemma coming up because there were a number of seats throughout Australia where there's been very strong efforts to strengthen religious interests at the branch level," Dr Cockfield said.

"One might not go so far as to say branch stacking, but certainly branch recruiting.

"But we know very well from all kinds of survey work that members of political parties are not typical of the community … and of course, they live in echo chambers.

"So that's their dilemma. They can talk all their life about getting 'back to the base', but in voting terms, that base is not that big."

Dr Cockfield said Mr Hamilton would have a busy term over the next three years trying to win back those lost votes of the community, while keeping the faction that handed him his job in line.

Geoff Cockfield is a lecturer in politics and economics at the University of Southern Queensland. (ABC News: Caitlyn Gribbin)

Grassroots campaigning will continue

While still considered safe, Groom is no longer the 'very safe' LNP heartland it once was.

In regions like southern Queensland, where change happens slowly, politics is back on the radar.

More women and non-binary people ran in 2022 in the seat of Groom. (ABC Southern Qld)

The full election result has not even been finalised, but Mr Hamilton talks as if he needs to start campaigning again straight away.

"That's what I need to be focusing on. A good local member who will always get out and do that hard work," he said.

"Quite frankly, I love going out doorknocking."

His opponents are circling and believe this is "only the beginning" for Groom,  hoping to make it one to watch on election night in 2025.

Stark warning from West Australian Liberal women after two election disasters.
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