Every four years at the start of the season, there is the quadrennial game played by just about every rugby pundit on the planet as to who will make the British and Irish Lions squad the following summer – except in France, of course, where the Lions remain a mystery to them.
As we anticipate the start of the Autumn Tests this coming weekend, part of me thinks we should ban the ‘L’ word and concentrate on the tasks in hand, not least because I know that having followed the Lions for 50 years and having written a book about them – Once Were Lions, written with my old mucker Jeff Connor and still available at an Amazon website near you – I can categorically assure you that no player’s place on the plane to Australia is guaranteed at this stage.
It’s just far too soon to be predicting who will make the tour, and with the Autumn Tests and the Guinness Six Nations to come, a lot is going to change in the next six months before head coach Andy Farrell – the right man for the job - starts to finalise his selection of a likely final 42 players.
Farrell will face plenty of issues before then. For instance, who will captain the squad? It will have to be an experienced captain who is certain to be in the Test XV so that could mean Maro Itoje of England or James Ryan of Ireland.
Will Farrell take his son Owen on the tour and if so could the former England captain get the top job? The only problem could be that Owen Farrell might be involved with Racing 92 in the end-of-season deciders in France and he might have to miss the start of the Lions’ tour, so I’m sticking with Ryan or Itoje.
I think Farrell will make an obvious differentiation between the Test squad and the ‘dirt trackers’ who will contest the provincial games, though as any former Lion will tell you, some of the so-called lesser games can prove vastly tougher than predicted. If there’s a clear distinction between first choice and dirt tracker, then expect Farrell to say so, if only to challenge the second division to step up and be ready for Test status.
How many Scots will go to Australia? If Farrell was picking his squad today, I think there would only be seven Scotland players in the 42 – Finn Russell, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Blair Kinghorn, Zander Fagerson, Jack Dempsey and Rory Darge. All of them suit the way Farrell wants to play the game, and their need to prove themselves as Lions contenders might actually help Scotland this autumn.
If it encourages players to up their performance, then Gregor Townsend must mention the ‘L’ word and should be saying to the Scotland squad that the coming weeks are their chance to catch Andy Farrell’s attention. The likes of Ben White, Huw Jones, Scott Cummings, Darcy Graham, Pierre Schoeman, and Jamie Ritchie must be considered as ‘bubbling under’ and it would be great to see Rory Sutherland regain the consistent form that earned him a Lions place.
First of all, they must get selected for Saturday’s encounter with Fiji at Murrayfield. I just cannot understand those fans who think Scotland are a racing certainty to beat the South Sea islanders. Remember that Russell, White and Kinghorn will be absent because the match is outside the international window while Johnny Gray has absented himself from the squad for all four Tests – that could even cost him a Lions jersey. Oops, I mentioned the ‘L’ word again…
Scotland must concentrate on the Fiji match to the exclusion of all else, and yes I know we’re playing world champions South Africa the following weekend. There needs to be a morale-boosting win before we go up against the Springboks and Fiji are absolutely no pushovers.
Just look at the official rankings of World Rugby. Scotland have slipped to No. 7, while Fiji who started the year at No. 11 are now up to ninth, ahead of Australia and Wales. Fiji are coming here off a superb campaign to land the Pacific Nations Cup and from what I saw of the final against Japan, Fiji’s traditional defensive foibles are a thing of the past. That’s down to head coach Mick Byrne, the Aussie who spent three seasons as Scotland’s skills coach from 2002 to 2005 before going on to huge success in a similar role for the All Blacks.
The wily Byrne knows the Scotland set-up, and will have his players well-trained and well-disciplined – another Fijian problem that appears to have been eradicated.
They will still attack from anywhere on the field, and with a 23-year-old flying winger Vuate Karawalevu returned from rugby league to score a hat-trick in that final against Japan, I just hope Scotland and the sell-out crowd at Murrayfield do not get a nasty surprise.
Keep their shape and discipline, take Fiji on up front and then get our exciting back line moving and Scotland should win what will undoubtedly be an exciting match.
