Our record straight-up remains subpar in the midst of our 32nd year of NFL picks in the Miami Herald, but our mark against the spread is on the uptick. Had a third straight winning record vs. the Evil Betting Line last week, and we’re slaying the point spread at a .581 clip over that span. Last week we bull’s-eyed an outright upset with Broncos beating Jaguars in London, and had a pair of other dog-with-points wins on covers by the Packers at Buffalo and by the Browns vs. Cincy on Monday night. Our Jets-over-Pats upset misfire hurt especially bad, as our gut told us New England but we didn’t listen. Tally ho! Long season. Now let’s keep our ATS run going and start to rally overall.
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Week 8: 9-6, .600 overall; 8-7, .533 vs. spread.
Season: 68-54-1, .557 overall; 60-62-1, .496 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 9 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
RAMS (3-4) at BUCCANEERS (3-5)
Line: TB by 3.
Cote’s pick: TB, 21-17.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.
Oh the controversy at the Game of the Week committee meeting! The rancor! Rams-Bucs clearly won the vote, but the supporters of Titans-Chiefs stormed out in a huff and now are falsely insisting their side won. Can you imagine such a thing!? Where was I? Oh yeah. The game. How is 3-4 at 3-5 the GOTW? Because it is two desperate, humbled giants — the past two Super Bowl champions — scrambling to stay in the playoff hunt. It’s Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford languishing 14th and 20th in passer ratings. It’s the Rams with a bottom five offense and Tampa on a 1-5 skid despite being favored in all six games. Shocking struggles and desperation make this, for me, the must-see game. A subpar Bucs run defense vs. a Rams team that can’t run epitomizes this game. Give me the home team, rested after playing last Thursday. Give me Brady finding a way.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
VIKINGS (6-1) at COMMANDERS (4-4)
Line: MIN by 3.
Cote’s pick: WAS, 23-20. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWK!” sings the Upset Bird. “Washingtaawwk!” Good time to be a Comms fan. Team has won three in a row. Taylor Heinicke is looking like a QB upgrade over injured Carson Wentz. And devil owner Dan Snyder might finally be selling. But this upset is pinned as much on the opponent. Minnesota’s five consecutive victories all have been by a one-score margin, four have been at home and four have come against teams with a losing record. I’m just not quite sold on the Vikes, who are flattered by their record and for a loss as Kirk Cousins falls to his former team. “If you’ll forgive a bit of a non sequitur aside, we all just hate the Commanders nickname, don’t we?,” notes U-Bird. “But at least it does beat the heck out of Redskaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 9:
Eagles (7-0) at Texans (1-5-1) Thursday night: We had unbeaten Philly (-14) winning in Houston and also covering the two-touchdown line, 34-13.
Dolphins (5-3, -4) over @Bears (3-5), 27-20: Pretty good time to be a Dolfan, eh? The highest bar is set. Tua Tagovailoa declares, “We’re not afraid to talk about Super Bowls here.” Dolphins are 5-0 this season when he’s played the whole game and on a 12-2 run with him starting. Miami has beaten the SB-favorite Bills. Fins won free agency (Terron Armstead signing), won the offseason (Tyreek Hill trade) and now are emboldened by the trade-deadline win: Linebacker Bradley Chubb (along with running back Jeff Wilson). Tua leads the NFL in passer rating, and Hill is on pace to top 2,000 yards receiving, which would be a first in league history. And, apropos of Sunday, Chicago weakened itself this week by trading top defender Roquan Smith to Baltimore, accentuating why Miami is a clear road favorite here. Bears’ improving offense leads NFL in run yards, but Fins’ run defense is stout, and now adds Chubb. Despite all that, I’m a bit wary of this game for Miami. Bears are capable of an upset, and Dolphins’ D has not typically as strong away from home. Miami is flying high, and expectations have grown, but there is much to prove, and faith in the Fins being that good is fragile. It grows, or trembles, with games like this — the games you are expected to win, and had better.
Chargers (4-3, -3) over @Falcons (4-4), 27-20: Toughest call of the week. You don’t find many division leaders as home dogs; then again, it’s the NFC South. And Atlanta has lost seven of past nine as said home dog. Off a bye week, Bolts and Justin Herbert should find friendly skies vs. Falcons’ 32nd-ranked pass defense.
@Bengals (4-4, -7) over Panthers (2-6), 24-16: From Super Bowl to .500? Cincy’s vulnerability (and Joe Burrow’s) is a bad O-line, but Carolina is less equipped than most to take advantage. Ja’Marr Chase out injured hurts, but Burrow has enough weapons left to handle a Cats squad that has lost seven in a row on the road.
Packers (3-5, -3 1/2) over @Lions (1-6), 30-23: Pack on a 5-1 series roll, and Motown is No-town as Detroit has lost 19 of past 24 at home. And even when Green Bay is struggling ... Lions are worse. Detroit’s defense is an elixir for ailing offenses, and it will be just the magic pill Aaron Rodgers needs to end a four-game losing streak.
@Patriots (4-4, -5) over Colts (3-4-1), 20-16: Colts-Patriots has gone from Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady to Sam Ehlinger vs. Mac Jones. Indy was dumb to bench Matt Ryan in favor of the untested Ehlinger, and we will see why here as Bill Belichick feasts on green young QBs. When RB Jonathan Taylor isn’t a dominant horse, Nags don’t have much on the attack. Pats on an 8-1 roll in series, and Indy has lost six straight trips to Foxborough, Mass. With two turnover-prone teams, mistakes figure as the difference. Bet line feels fat for a points-shy matchup.
Bills (6-1, -11 1/2) over @Jets (5-3), 31-14: All three Jets losses have come at home. Make it four. Buffs have won four consecutive trips to East Rutherford, N.J. Make it five. Buffalo’s best start since 1993 is no fluke — the Super Bowl favorite with cause. NYJ offense badly misses injured RB Breece Hall, and it will take fireworks beyond Zach Wilson’s reach to hang with Josh Allen and keep this close.
@Jaguars (2-6, +2) over Raiders (2-5), 26-23. Upset!: The Disappointment Bowl! Vegas’ shutout loss at New Orleans was its fifth straight L on the road. Jax has lost five in a row since a 2-1 start. Raiders tried to shake it up by practicing in Bradenton this week rather than fly back west. Sounds like desperation. Jags’ defense is sneaky good, especially at home, and will extend LV’s woes.
Seahawks (5-3, +2) over @Cardinals (3-5), 27-24. Upset!: Seattle’s Geno Smith is a delightfully unexpected NFL Player of the Year candidate. Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury is a coach feeling heat. I get (sort of) why Cardbirds might be favored, but Seahawks are a bit better on both sides of the ball, and Zona is 1-3 at home. If D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (both iffy) play as expected, Geno should light up Cards’ secondary. Seattle beat Birds 19-9 in October. Expect same result but closer to a shootout this time.
@Chiefs (5-2, -11) over Titans (5-2), 27-17: Sunday nighter might be the Week 9 Game of the Week (though it’s first alternate in our book). Titans coach Mike Vrabel better be beating the no-respect drum hard, because his team has won five in a row, has the same record as K.C., he is 4-1 head-to-head with Andy Reid — but look at that point spread! If Rodney Dangerfield was alive Vrabel would have him in for the pregame speech. But here’s the thing. Ryan Tannehill (ankle) may be hobbled if he plays. Chiefs are home and off a bye. Reid is a surreal 20-3 after byes, best in NFL history. Chiefs are on an 8-0 heater in prime time. Also (oh by the way): Patrick Mahomes vs. a 24th-ranked pass defense. Give me Titans plus-11, though a rout would not shock.
Ravens (5-3, -2 1/2) over @Saints (3-5), 30-23: Monday nighter is a close call with home-dog Saints a tempting upset call. But I resist. New Orleans shut out Las Vegas last week but Lamar Jackson is a whole nuther’ challenge compared to statue-in-the-pocket Derek Carr. I do not see Andy Dalton, beset by offensive injuries, outscoring Jackson. Ravens also added a huge defensive plus at the trade deadline by acquiring tackle machine Roquan Smith from Chicago. Crows also arrive rested after playing last Thursday.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.]
OFF THIS WEEK
Broncos (3-5, next @Titans) — Denver had lost four in a row before beating Jaguars in London. Trip to Nashville on deck will be a shorter flight but could be a tougher landing vs. Derrick Henry and that gang.
Browns (3-5, next @Dolphins) — Monday upset of rival Cincy ended four-game skid as NFL rushing leader Nick Chubb faces Miami next. Meantime Deshaun Watson (boooo!) is set to return from suspension Dec. 4.
Cowboys (6-2, next @Packers) — Dallas is an easy 2-0 (Lions, Bears) in midst of four straight vs. NFC North, and facing Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau isn’t quite as scary-daunting as in years past.
49ers (4-4, next vs. Chargers) — The Niners continued their mastery of the rival Rams last week. Up next, facing the other L.A. begins an unusual five-game homestand for San Francisco.
Giants (6-2, next vs. Texans) — Loss at Seattle shut down a four-game win streak for NYG, but visits by Houston and then Detroit back to back could get G-Men back on track.
Steelers (2-6, next vs. Saints) — Pittsburgh’s minus-77 points differential dubiously leads the league. But at least defensive star T.J. Watt is set to return from injury after the bye.
