Coming off a crazy week in which we went a nifty 11-5 overall but a grim 6-10 where the bread is buttered, against the spread. That was despite calling Panthers over Lions and a second outright upset with Rams over Broncos, plus having Cardinals with the points over Bucs. Also told you why Texans had a big upset shot over Titans but didn’t pull the trigger. It’s been that kind of season. Nothing left to do now but finish strong. We’ll need a strong final two weeks to reach .600 overall and a prognosticatory miracle to climb to .500 ATS. So let’s go! (Note, result of Thursday night’s Cowboys-Titans game not included below.)
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Week 16: 11-5, .688 overall; 6-10, .375 vs. spread.
Season: 140-98-2, .588 overall; 109-124-7, .469 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 17 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
BILLS (12-3) at BENGALS (11-4)
Line: BUF by 1 1/2.
Cote’s pick: BUF, 30-27.
TV: 8:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC.
Big stakes in play on a Monday night as two AFC powers and Super Bowl aspirants go jousting. Buffalo clinches a first-round bye and home field throughout with a win and a loss by Chiefs. Cincy clinches division title with a win and a loss by Ravens. Bengals have won seven in a row and the Bills six straight. Hot meet hot. Difference could be Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow — a strength vs. strength tossup if Allen (13 picks) can avoid the oopsies. No result would surprise, but give Buffs a slight edge both with the ball and without.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
VIKINGS (12-3) at PACKERS (7-8)
Line: GB by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: MIN, 28-20.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.
“AAWWK!” warbles the Upset Bird. “End of the line for the Green Bay Paaawwwk!” Kirk Cousins and Minnesota have been proving doubters wrong all year, and here comes another chance. Should the Vikings even be underdogs here? The betting line is mesmerized by Aaron Rodgers and the three straight wins that have given Gee Bees playoff hope, but that ends at Lambeau, where Vikes have been a credible 3-3-1 in past seven meetings. Vikes won 23-7 in season opener and will show that was no fluke. “Big game for Dalvin Cook,” predicts U-Bird. “Minnesaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 17:
Cowboys at Titans Thursday night: We had Dallas (-10 1/2) winning at Tennessee, 23-17, but the Titans covering.
@Patriots (7-8, -3) over Dolphins (8-7), 23-17: Two staggering old rivals meet on New Year’s Day with playoff stakes big, and hopes teetering. Miami clinches a postseason berth with a win and a loss by the Jets later Sunday. New England must win and still require some outside help. Both arrive in bad form. Miami has lost four in a row in an 0-for-December swoon and now expects Teddy Bridgewater to start at QB with Tua Tagovailoa enduring another concussion. The Patriots are on a 1-4 skid, including consecutive losses on embarrassing late miscues such as you would never have expected of Bill Belichick teams. Miami was cast from small favorite to underdog with Tua’s injury. No result here would surprise, but for me Pats at home is the safer play. Fins have lost 10 of their past 14 trips to Foxborough in December or later. And Pats’ opportunistic defense — an NFL-leading six defensive touchdowns — looms as a rugged test for a rusty Bridgewater.
@Falcons (5-11, -3 1/2) over Cardinals (4-11), 24-20: Bird Bowl is only Week 17 matchup with both teams eliminated from all playoff hope. A hint why: Combined they have lost nine games in a row and 13 of past 15. Neither is the Hall of Fame advance-scouting this Colt McCoy-Desmond Ridder QB duel. Zona is abysmal on defense and has lost nine straight trips to the ATL.
@Lions (7-8, -6) over Bears (3-12), 38-24: Detroit beat Chicago, 31-30, in Week 10, and this could be in that range as Jared Goff and Justin Fields go nuts against pliable defenses. Anticipate a Lions rebound from last week’s stunning loss to Carolina that left Motown on edge of playoff elimination. Bears have lost eight straight and are 1-6 on the road for a reason.
@Chiefs (12-3, -12 1/2) over Broncos (4-11), 34-13: KC is gunning for the No. 1 AFC seed and home field throughout, and is on a 14-0 series roll. Denver is on a 1-10 road skid and just fired rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett after giving up 51 points to a bad Rams offense. Chiefs name their score.
@Giants (8-6-1, -5 1/2) over Colts (4-10-1), 19-16: Despite a 1-4-1 lull in past six games the G-Men clinch playoff spot with a win here, or with a couple of other results falling right — while five losses in a row have plundered all hope Indy once had. See Colts on the cover in a low-scoring game, though. IND has won seven of past eight trips to East Rutherford, and NYG’s offense has topped 24 points only once all season.
@Eagles (13-2, -5 1/2) over Saints (6-9), 26-17: No. 1 seed-chasing Philly clinches NFC East with a win, which should help prevent a letdown game after last week’s loss to rival Dallas. Meanwhile N’Awlins’ playoff hope hangs by a fraying thread. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (shoulder) had not been ruled out as we made this pick, but backup Gardner Minshew seemed likely to get the ball again. Birds still have enough talent to handle Saints.
@Buccaneers (7-8, -3) over Panthers (6-9), 24-16: The Upset Bird is on alert and hovering. Tom Brady’s Bucs clinch woeful NFC South with a win, but Panthers seize division lead on a tiebreaker if they win. A relentlessly disappointing offense has led to Tampa covering the spread only once in past 13 games. Cats won first meeting 21-3, Brady has tossed six picks in past three games and Carolina is 3-1 since Sam Darnold got the ball. I like Brady vs. a banged-up Cats secondary, but with tepid confidence.
@Commanders (7-7-1, -2 1/2) over Browns (6-9), 20-17: Washington clinches playoff spot with a win, if Seahawks, Lions and Packers all lose. Healthy-again veteran Carson Wentz replaces Taylor Heinicke at QB for Comms. That’s a wash, but either is better than Deshaun Watson has been in his four games back form suspension. Bounce-back effort by Washers’ defense should continue Watson’s woes.
Jaguars (7-8, -4) over @Texans (2-12-1), 23-20: Jax now owns AFC South lead on a tiebreaker and thus assures itself a playoff spot by winning out. That’s thanks to a 4-1 burst on the wing of Trevor Lawrence. But Houston has not quit, as last week’s upset of Titans declared, and Texans own the mental edge of having beaten Jaguars nine times in a row, including 13-6 in Week 5. Sticking with Lawrence’s hot hand, but like HOU with the points.
49ers (11-4, -10) over @Raiders (6-9), 27-21: San Fran is on an eight-game win streak, is 4-0 behind Brock Purdy and also has won eight in a row over the Raiders. Yet the Niners have comfortably clinched their division and don’t have a lot to play for here. Neither, realistically, does all-but-eliminated Vegas. I would lean Raiders with the points.
@Seahawks (7-8, +2) over Jets (7-8), 24-21. Upset!: Jets stay alive for playoffs by winning if Miami loses earlier Sunday. But Seattle is fighting for its playoff life, too, in a matchup of teams slumping at the worst possible time. Mike White is back at QB to give NYJ a needed boost, but Geno Smith will be plenty motivated to face his former team. Make it a venue call and a home-dog upset.
@Chargers (9-6, -6 1/2) over Rams (5-10), 23-18: City of Angels Bowl finds Bolts already playoff-clinched and Rams in the mire of an awful season though on the upswing, 2-1 under Baker Mayfield and coming off their best game of the year. That’s why the point spread seems fat for what figures as a low-scoring affair. Rams’ D has allowed only 34 points during past three games and will ride another such effort to the cover.
Steelers (7-8, +2 1/2) over @Ravens (10-5), 17-16. Upset!: Sunday night stage gets a rivalry and an expected defensive struggle. Baltimore is playoff-clinched, is happy where it’s at seeding-wise and therefore Lamar Jackson is likely to sit again and not be rushed back. Pittsburgh must win out and pray to have any playoff shot. Ravens won 16-13 just three weeks ago and see Pitt turning tables in a similar-type game.
(Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.)
