Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and joyful holidays to all! Bounced back OK from one of our worst weeks ever by going 9-7 outright and 7-8-1 against the spread. But with only three weeks left we have a lot of heavy lifting to get up over .600 straight-up and .500 ATS. Let’s do it! Positive signs last week. Had four dogs-with-points on covers by Bears, Steelers, Texans and Giants. Missed two others by one point. And our Upset of the Week pick led 17-0 but Bucs couldn’t hold on. Time to finish strong! (Note, result of Thursday night’s Jaguars-Jets game not included below.)
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Week 15: 9-7, .563 overall; 7-8-1, .469 vs. spread.
Season: 129-93-2, .581 overall; 103-114-7, .475 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 16 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
EAGLES (13-1) at COWBOYS (10-4)
Line: DAL by 5.
Cote’s pick: DAL, 27-23.
TV: 4:25 p.m. Saturday, Fox.
Both NFC East rivals have clinched the playoffs. Philly can win the division and home-field throughout with a victory here, but that’s a big ask. QB Jalen Hurts has been ruled out with a sprained shoulder, and his absence, well, hurts. The falloff to backup Gardner Minshew is large. Still give Birds a tall shot — more so if ‘Boys defensive leader Micah Parsons (illness) can’t go. Dallas is 7-1 at home, but its D has not been as strong lately (as in last week’s loss to Jacksonville), and Dak Prescott has seven interceptions in past four games behind a shaky-at-times O-line. Cowboys on a 5-1 run at home in rivalry, but, even sans Hurts, see Birds keeping this one inside the betting line.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
BENGALS (10-4) at PATRIOTS (7-7)
Line: CIN by 3.
Cote’s pick: NE, 23-20. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m. Saturday, CBS.
“AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “Deck the halls with boughs of haaawwwk!” Cincy clinches playoffs with a win or with a loss by Jets, and Dolfans surely will be rooting for the Bengals as New England chases Miami. I see Patriots at home bouncing back big from that embarrassing loss to Vegas last week that ended with an asinine lateral play that knocked NE off playoff pace. I’m gut-feeling Joe Burrow and ‘Gals are due a slip, and Cincy has lost seven straight trips to Foxborough. If Mac Jones can avoid turnovers, venue and Pats’ defense should be enough. “This upset pick is based on a lot faith in a .500 team,” notes U-Bird, quite frankly. “Belichaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 16:
Jaguars at Jets Thursday night: We had New York Jets (even) winning/covering over Jacksonville Jaguars, 19-17.
Bills (11-3, -8) over @Bears (3-11), 23-17: The early wave of 11 Saturday games begins with Buffalo able to clinch the AFC East by winning, or if Miami loses. Bills have won five straight and Chicago has dropped seven in a row and both trends should continue. But hunch Justin Fields and Bears keep it closer than the line. Buffs have failed to cover in six of past eight.
@Browns (6-8, -3) over Saints (5-9), 17-10: The over/under of 32 1/2 at the time of this pick stood as lowest in NFL since 2009. That’s two struggling offenses plus two stout defenses plus a winter storm forecast for northeast Ohio. Saints, a dome-team, will be affected more adversely. N’Awlins is 1-5 on the road, and Browns’ ground game will be key.
@Titans (7-7, -3) over Texans (1-12-1), 21-16: Forget Houston’s abysmal record. Texans lost by one score to Chiefs a week after doing same vs. Cowboys, and give ‘em an XXL-sized upset shot against a Titans team that will start rookie Malik Willis as Ryan Tannehill’s ankle injury will shut him down. Despite it all, but anxiously, I’m riding Derrick Henry for the win.
@Chiefs (11-3, -10) over Seahawks (7-7), 30-17: Seattle played last Thursday but the rest/prep edge won’t be enough to halt a 1-4 slump that has dropped ‘Hawks off playoff pace. KC has clinched division but still fights for home-field throughout. Seattle has an atrocious run defense if Chiefs would care to give Patrick Mahomes’ arm a bit of a rest.
@Vikings (11-3, -4) over Giants (8-5-1), 28-17: Minnesota has clinched division. NYG can clinch playoff spot with win and with two losses among Commanders/Lions/Seahawks. Vikes must avoid letdown after last week erasing a 33-0 deficit for biggest comeback win in NFL history. Home field, where team has won eight of past nine, should help. Upset by G-Men would not surprise, but their offense can’t keep up.
@Panthers (5-9, +2 1/2) over Lions (7-7), 23-20. Upset!: An oddly high-stakes game, with Detroit playing itself into wild-card chase and Carolina only one game off the lead in the god-awful NFC South. Our upset pick relies on Cats being a much better team at home and odds suggesting hot Lions are due a stumble.
@Ravens (9-5, -7) over Falcons (5-9), 24-6: Baltimore can cinch playoffs with a win if two teams among Dolphins, Jets and Pats lose. Lamar Jackson (knee) will miss a third straight start, and backup Tyler Huntley is a bit banged up, too. So Ravens’ D and J.K. Dobbins will carry the day. Atlanta is 1-6 on the road, and Crows’ pass rush will be hard lesson for rookie QB Desmond Ridder.
@49ers (10-4, -7) over Commanders (7-6-1), 20-17: San Fran is division-clinched and rested after playing last Thursday, but with no real shot at winning home-field throughout. Could mean a letdown? Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy (sore ribs) will face a tough test vs. Comms pass rush. Washington with the points.
@Steelers (6-8, -2 1/2) over Raiders (6-8), 26-23: Vegas a tempting upset pick, but Pittsburgh was hopeful of getting Kenny Pickett back from his concussion, and the home lift should be bigger than usual. Why? It’s Saturday’s prime-time stage, and Steelers are honoring the 50th anniversary of the iconic “Immaculate Reception” play — just days after the unexpected death of franchise legend Franco Harris. Raiders were gifted a win last week by Pats’ colossally boneheaded lateral play, and are on as 2-9 skid vs. sub-.500 teams.
@Dolphins (8-6, -3 1/2) over Packers (6-8), 30-24: Miami clings to seventh and last AFC playoff spot after an 0-3 road trip as Week 16 begins — and Dolphins cannot clinch a wild card even by winning here. Green Bay, its hopes on fumes, must win out and pray. In addition to playoff stakes in December, Dolphins fans get the rare treat of a visit by the great Aaron Rodgers. This is only his third time here, after earlier visits in 2006 and 2014 (he won both). Any notion the Fins should win comfortably unduly flatters Miami. Rodgers faces a beatable Miami pass defense that Justin Herbert and Josh Allen just strafed pretty good. Gee Bees can run the ball, too. And Packers packed a good pass defense to challenge Tua Tagovailoa, et al. I still like the Dolphins, though with only medium confidence. Fins have two days more rest than GB and are on an 11-1 run at home, where the defense plays appreciably better. Also, after Miami collapsed in fourth quarter snow in Buffalo last week, we can guarantee no snow in South Florida on Christmas Day! It will be very cold (for us), with temps around 50, and maybe even some showers. But no snow! Give Rodgers and Pack a big upset shot, but count on a big home crowd with holiday spirit to lift Tua and the defense just in time to give listing postseason hopes the gift of a needed win.
@Rams (4-10, +3) over Broncos (4-10), 16-13. Upset!: The second of three Christmas Day games features the two lowest-scoring offenses in league and two disappointing teams playing out the string. And at QB we get the Baker Mayfield Reclamation Project vs. Russell Wilson, whose first season in Denver has been an enormous letdown. Denver is 1-6 on the road and Rams have won four straight in series.
Buccaneers (6-8, -7 1/2) over @Cardinals (4-10), 23-18: The Christmas night prime-timer hardly merits the stage, although at least there’s the promise of Tom Brady, miffed he didn’t make the Pro Bowl, putting on a show just for spite. ‘Zona is infamously awful at home (1-12 skid) and is down to third-string QB Trace McSorley. Still hunch Cardbirds with the points. Brady has six turnovers in past two games and Bucs just ain’t that good.
Chargers (8-6, -5) over @Colts (4-9-1), 27-23: Monday nighter will see LAC clinch playoffs if Bolts win and if Dolphins, Raiders, Pats and Jets all lose. It also will be a stage for Nick Foles as he supplants Matt Ryan as Indy QB in wake of a 39-36 loss in which Colts did the impossible by somehow blowing a 33-0 lead. Foles is good, and he’ll lend spark enough for Nags to beat the point spread if not the Chargers.
(Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.)
