If close counted, I would be at a poker table with Bezos, Buffett and Musk right now — raising. Had the Colts over Eagles in our Upset of the Week last week and Indy led the whole game before losing by one point. Had Falcons winning 27-23; they won 27-24. Had Chiefs winning 31-27; they won 30-27. Still, I’ll take the week: 10-4 straight-up, 7-6-1 against the spread, with Atlanta’s 3-point win the push for the tie. Nailed Las Vegas’ upset win in Denver, and also had dog-with-points covers by Colts and Chargers. [Results of the three Thanksgiving Day games are not included below.]
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Week 11: 10-4, .714 overall; 7-6-1, .538 vs. spread.
Season: 94-69-1, .577 overall; 81-78-5, .509 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 11 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
PACKERS (4-7) at EAGLES (9-1)
Line: PHI by 7.
Cote’s pick: PHI, 24-20.
TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.
If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were what we expected this would be a heck of a duel for a Sunday night. It still ekes out Game of the Week honors for its pure watch-ability: Mighty Philly, looking a bit beatable the past two weeks. And downtrodden Green Bay, scrambling to desperately stay on periphery of playoff chase — and Rodgers seemingly at his best when counted out. Pack is only 1-4 on road but is on a 6-2 run in this series and should be ready after playing last Thursday. Gee Bees also have covered seven of past eight times as an underdog and should again here. If they can force Jalen Hurts to use his arm more than his legs, an outright upset will be in play.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
BRONCOS (3-7) at PANTHERS (3-8)
Line: DEN by 2.
Cote’s pick: CAR, 16-13. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” croons the Upset Bird. “Carolaaawwwk!” Sam Darnold gets his crack at Carolina’s disheveled QB job after Baker Mayfield was what you would expect last week. Denver’s league-worst offense means Sam won’t need to score much — and won’t against this Broncos defense. Come to think of it, pinning this upset pick on Darnold doing much right might lend a whole new meaning to the word risk. Still, this for me is foremost a venue call. Denver is only 1-4 on the road, while all three Panthers wins have come at home. “Home cookin’ on a Thanksgiving weekend,” notes U-Bird with a nod. “Happy Thanksgaawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 12:
Our three Thanksgiving Day picks: We picked Buffalo (-10) to win but not cover; Dallas (-9 1/2) to win and cover; and New England to win in an outright upset.
@Dolphins (7-3, -13 1/2) over Texans (1-8-1), 40-10: We have had a bye week to reflect and further fathom the great lift this season has been for Dolfans. It was 2003 when Miami was last this big a favorite, owing to both Houston’s awfulness and the growing respect for the Dolphins. The danger? Flying high off four wins in a row, there is the risk of a letdown here, of overconfidence. And how often has that threatened Miami the past 20 years!? Don’t see that happening, though. Miami should roll and stay on top in the mighty, mighty AFC East. Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should keep the air raid going, and Fins’ beefed-up ground game should feast on Texans’ NFL-worst run defense. Also, Miami’s defense — always better at home — should neatly handle a Texans offense that might be close to benching QB Davis Mills.
Buccaneers (5-5, -3 1/2) over @Browns (3-7), 24-20: Tampa Bay has disappointed on offense but, still, this is Tom Brady, coming off a bye, facing a Cleveland squad ranked 31st in scoring defense. Browns are OK on offense, but have yet to beat a defense as good as Tampa’s. Medium upset shot, but nothing I would bet on.
@Titans (7-3, +1 1/2) over Bengals (6-4), 23-21. Upset!: The only Sunday matchup with two winning-record teams and both on a roll is our GOTW first alternate. Cincy could get weapons Ja’Marr Chase (hip) and Joe Mixon (concussion) back this week but both were iffy as of Wednesday when we made these picks. Gambling both might be out, I’m feeling home dogs Titans for the upset with an edge on defense and added prep/rest after playing last Thursday.
@Jets (6-4, -4 1/2) over Bears (3-8), 20-17: Wild card in this pick is Justin Fields’ (non-throwing) shoulder injury, which had him day-to-day and could limit his running even if he plays. Hasn’t resulted in wins, but Fields has blossomed — whereas Jets counterpart Zach Wilson’s play has called into doubt his future as a starter. Not even sure Chitown’s bad defense could've rescued Wilson. Bears are 1-5 on road but NYJ has lost 12 straight to teams with a losing record. Riding with Jets’ D here, but Bears with the points.
@Commanders (6-5, -4) over Falcons (5-6), 23-20: Washington has won five of its past six games, brings a solid defense and has been better on the attack with the ball in Taylor Heinicke’s hands. Comms are also home against a foe 1-4 on the road, and missing TE Kyle Pitts. Chance ATL with the points, though.
Ravens (7-3, -3 1/2) over @Jaguars (3-7), 27-17: Jags are coming off a bye and healthy; still, this betting line doesn’t show much respect to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Or to BAL’s defense, which has not allowed more than two TDs for four straight games and will handle Jax’s turnover-prone offense. Jaguars also have a lousy track record on upsets, losing 30 of past 36 games as a dog.
Chargers (5-5, -4 1/2) over @Cardinals (4-7), 30-23: Tough call because of one variable: Zona QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) iffy to play after missing past two games. Betting line seems to suggest he won’t. Cardbirds are not a good home team (1-4), and I love Justin Herbert against a quite-dreadful Arizona pass defense. (Might have gone for a Cacti cover if I was more sure Murray would play.)
@Seahawks (6-4, -3 1/2) over Raiders (3-7), 27-23: Shootout potential here. Geno Smith is facing a generous Vegas secondary, while Derek Carr-to-Davante Adams is “en fuego” lately. Feel an upset possibility, but I’ll take Seattle, off a bye, healthy as it has been, and in its first home game since Oct. 30, vs. Raiders who are 1-5 on the road and have lost five straight trips to the Emerald City.
@Chiefs (8-2,-15) over Rams (3-7), 31-13: This crazy point spread speaks to the might of K.C. and Patrick Mahomes but even more loudly to the state of the Rams. L.A. is almost sure to be the first Super Bowl champion to have a losing record the next year since the 2003 Bucs. Now Matthew Stafford is iffy with his second concussion this month, while Chiefs present a strong pass rush to whomever is back there. Rams covering requires a monumental performance by LAR’s defense, but I would bet instead on Mahomes outscoring the opponent’s awful offense by more than two TDs.
@49ers (6-4, -9 1/2) over Saints (4-7), 24-13: San Fran’s sack attack will bother and hound a sedentary Andy Dalton and make it tough for N’Awlins to score much. Niners’ offense has averaged 30.3 in its three-game win streak and faces a bottom-fourth Saints scoring defense. Lot of points to give in what could be a low-score tilt, but I expect Niners’ D to dominate.
@Colts (4-6-1, -2 1/2) over Steelers (3-7), 24-20: Holiday week wraps up on the Monday night stage with two tepid offenses. And with Pittsburgh RB Najee Harris and Indy’s Jonathan Taylor both coming on strong lately, this should be a run-first contest light on points. Steelers on a 7-0 run in this series but also 1-4 away this year. Nags have been better with Matt Ryan back under center, and I’ll ride ‘em at home.
