We will lead off with the bad news and bat cleanup with the good. Last week was a bloodbath straight-up for us with a 6-8 record overall. That left us still looking to get up over the Mendoza line of .600 in a tough season decorated with upsets. But we slayed the Evil Betting Line last week, going a big 9-5 against the point spread. That included a bull’s-eye on our Upset of the Week: Steelers over Saints, and four other dogs-with-points on covers by the Colts, Packers, Chargers and Commanders. We’ve been on an ATS roll for a good while now — so much so that our season record against the spread has finally inched up over .500. Let’s keep it going!
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Week 10: 6-8, .429 overall; 9-5, .643 vs. spread.
Season: 84-65-1, .564 overall; 74-72-4, .507 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 11 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
COWBOYS (6-3) at VIKINGS (8-1)
Line: DAL by 1.
Cote’s pick: DAL, 27-24.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.
An NFC power struggle wins the Game of the Week vote. It’s America’s Team vs. southeast Minnesota’s team — what more do you want? Dallas lost at Green Bay last week, and Minny won at Buffalo in a pair of OT thrillers. With Cowboys’ pass D a strength, expect Vikes to saddle up Dalvin Cook vs. 29th-ranked Dallas run stoppers. Still like Boys’ defense better than Minnesota’s overall, and DAL’s offense should be full strength with the expected return of RB Ezekiel Elliott. I keep thinking Vikings are not as good as their record and keep being proven wrong. Gotta be right one of these weeks!
UPSET OF THE WEEK
EAGLES (8-1) at COLTS (4-5-1)
Line: PHI by 6 1/2.
Cote’s pick: IND, 23-20. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
“AAAWWWK!” crows the Upset Bird. “Indianapolaaawwwk!” Philly finally lost last week and the ‘72 Dolphins toasted themselves, and now what are the odds the Eagles lose again? Well, pretty good, it says here. Colts owner Jim Irsay is doing a victory dance because Indy won its first game with new coach Jeff Saturday-turned-Sunday. It isn’t magic. Indy was underperforming. They have a winning-caliber defense. When Jonathan Taylor is running like he did last year and Matt Ryan avoids interceptions, Indy is good. If Colts can do that again as home dogs, I like ‘em against a Philly side with WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both iffy to play. “Truly a major upset call,” notes U-Bird with an admiring if skeptical nod. “Jeff Saturdaawwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 11:
Titans (6-3) at Packers (4-6) Thursday night: We had Green Bay (-3) winning at home and covering the three points over Tennessee, 23-16.
@Falcons (4-6, -3) over Bears (3-7), 27-23: Two erratic and slumping teams that won’t sniff the playoffs make for one unreliable bet, but signs point to ATL at home. Falcons have rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday, and Chitown is 1-4 on road with a defense that has allowed 116 points in its three-game skid. Justin Fields is the dual threat Bears hoped for but also has taken an NFL-high 36 sacks.
@Bills (6-3, -7 1/2) over Browns (3-6), 24-13: Buffs have lost two straight partly because Josh Allen’s elbow is not 100%; he’s thrown six picks in past three games. And snow in western New York on Sunday could keep score down and have Browns leaning on RB Nick Chubb. Having said that, Bills’ defensive front will make it a chilly nightmare for Jacoby Brissett.
@Patriots (5-4, -3) over Jets (6-3), 20-16: This is our Game of the Week first alternate because we will see if Jets truly have turned a meaningful corner or if they’re still obedient dogs on Bill Belichick’s leash. Asked this just three weeks ago and Pats beat Planes, 22-17 — Belichick’s 13th straight win and 21st in past 23 meetings in this lopsided AFC East rivalry. Both teams are off a bye. NYJ is 4-0 on road, but New England’s defense will be trouble in Zach Wilson’s pocket just like last month. Jets will beat Belichick someday. Just not this day.
Rams (3-6, +3 1/2) over @Saints (3-7), 19-17. Upset!: Rams QB Matthew Stafford practiced Wednesday and was expected to be cleared to return from his concussion Sunday — but won’t have elite target Cooper Kupp, out a month-plus with a high ankle sprain. Saints are sticking with Andy Dalton (for now) after weighing a QB change. These are two slumping, disappointing teams — none more than reigning Super Bowl champ L.A. — but, even sans Kupp, saddle up the Rams defense to win this one.
@Giants (7-2, -3) over Lions (3-6), 24-17: G-Men as negligible home faves disrespects a 7-2 team. Vegas must be mighty impressed by Detroit’s two straight wins. Giants RB Saquon Barkley and QB Daniel Jones scrambling should dominate Lions’ 31st-ranked run defense.
@Ravens (6-3, -13) over Panthers (3-7), 31-10: Baltimore is off a bye week, has won 16 of past 20 games following a bye, and hopes to have TE Mark Andrews and RB Gus Edwards both back — a big plus for Lamar Jackson’s attack. And Crows’ pass rush should make for a most uncomfortable return for QB Baker Mayfield, who will be operating a puddle of rust shavings and sweat.
Commanders (5-5, -3) over @Texans (1-7-1), 21-17: Warning! Upset alert! Red lights flashing! Sirens wailing! Won’t quite pull the trigger, but the signs are there. Washington traveling on a short week and facing a letdown after its huge Monday upset of previously unbeaten Philly. And Houston is sure easy to overlook as NFL’s only one-win team. Bet-line is small for a reason, or else home-dog Texans would be solid bet to cover.
Raiders (2-7, +2 1/2) over @Broncos (3-6), 24-16. Upset!: I am tired of counting on Denver’s defense to work miracles every week and/or Russell Wilson to finally start looking like the QB he once was. Vegas is 0-5 on road but that’s a trend ripe to end. Raiders on an 8-2 series run over Broncos including a 32-23 win in Week 4, and see big numbers again for Derek Carr to Davante Adams.
Bengals (5-4, -4) over @Steelers (3-6), 23-20: Pitt beat Cincy, 23-20, in season opener. That proved to be aberrant, but here we are with Steelers a tempting home dog. Joe Burrow is missing best target in injured Ja’Marr Chase while Burghers have clearly gotten a defensive lift from return of T.J. Watt, who could feast on Bengals’ shaky O-line. Oh, and Pitt is on a 12-3 run in series. Like Gals off a bye to eke it out, but Steelers to cover.
Chiefs (7-2, -6) over @Chargers (5-4), 31-27: Division rivalry and potential shootout could make a for a fun Sunday nighter. And the gap favoring KC’s offense (and Patrick Mahomes over Justin Herbert) narrows because LAC might have both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the lineup, while Chiefs have three WRs iffy including an emerging Juju Smith-Schuster. Mahomes on a 5-0 run in Sunday prime-time, but hunch Bolts-plus-six.
49ers (5-4, -8) over @Cardinals (4-6), 24-20: Monday night stage presents a continuation of the NFL’s world takeover with this NFC West game at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Birds QB Kyler Murray battles a tender hamstring but might play; backup Colt McCoy (knee) also is questionable. Either will confront a Niners’ defense that can turn a pocket hectic. Injury to TE Zach Ertz also a big hit for ‘Zona offense. I’ll chance Cards — plus-eight, though I’ll feel better if Murray plays.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.]
OFF THIS WEEK
Dolphins (7-3, next vs. Texans) — Miami leads the AFC East. Did you snap a photo of the standings? After strafing Cleveland for 39 points the Dolphins at 7-3 earn the bye with their best record through 10 games since 2001, while MVP talk heats up around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill hones in on 2,000 receiving yards, which would be an NFL first. Fins’ playoff pursuit might need the current cushion, though. Schedule toughens appreciably after next week’s visit by lowly Houston, and four of the last six games are on the road.
Buccaneers (5-5, next @Browns) — Two straight wins have Tom Brady level and back on top in the weak NFC South, and five of Bucs’ last seven foes currently have a losing record..
Jaguars (3-7, next vs. Ravens) — Jacksonville began the season 2-1 after consecutive impressive wins of 24-0 and 38-10. Yes, that was a thing that actually happened.
Seahawks (6-4, next vs. Raiders) — Seattle was supposed to be bad but leads its division, and it only took Geno Smith 10 NFL seasons to become an overnight sensation.
