Enjoyed a great opening to the playoffs in the wild-card round going 5-1 both outright and against the spread, but failed to maintain the momentum in a disappointing divisional round. The highlight: Had Bengals with the points covering at Buffalo. Let’s ace Sunday’s Championship doubleheader and head to the Super Bowl on a roll!
———
Divisional round: 2-2, .500 overall; 1-3, .250 vs. spread.
Playoffs: 7-3, .700 overall; 6-4, .600 vs. spread.
2022 season: 162-107-2, .602 overall; 121-143-7, .459 vs. spread.
2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
———
GREG COTE’S NFL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND PLAYOFF PICKS
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
No. 1 seed EAGLES (15-3, -2 1/2) over No. 2 49ERS (15-4), 23-20. [Sunday, 3 p.m., Fox; weather 46-51 degrees, cloudy, chance of rain showers] — Philly has held steady as a small home favorite in the NFC title game, the opener of Sunday’s play-in doubleheader to reach Super Bowl 57 in Arizona. Eagles crushed Giants last week while San Fran had a much tougher time beating Cowboys, one reason Philly is a bit healthier. Niners’ Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel all missed practice time this week but should be ready for Sunday. S.F. defensive lineman Charles Omenihu will play despite a Monday arrest on suspicion of misdemeanor domestic violence against his girlfriend, said coach Kyle Shanahan (surely to the disappointment of some). Two great but not infallible defenses here, with Eagles presenting susceptible run defense to McCaffrey, while an average Niners pass D might entice Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown. Turnovers might be the difference. San Francisco led NFL with a plus-13 turnover margin including at least two takeaways in eight of past 10 games. Forcing mistakes is a direct path to a small upset, so Hurts especially may need a clean game. Home field and weather underline the pick, along with the likelihood Philly’s awesome, pocket-crushing pass rush bothers Brock Purdy.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
No. 1 seed CHIEFS (15-3, -1) over No. 3 BENGALS (14-4), 27-23. [Sunday, 6:30 p.m., CBS; weather 12-17 degrees, cloudy, 11% chance of snow] — Duel for AFC crown is a near pick-’em but swung from Cincy to K.C. as slight favorite based solely on encouraging reports on Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. He was limping rather grotesquely in last week’s 27-20 scare vs. Jacksonville, while the Bengals were dominating Buffalo, 27-10. Last week’s disparate performances and Mahomes’ injury should give Cincy backers big hope. So should Joe Burrow’s 3-0 record head-to-head with Mahomes (albeit each win by only a three-point margin including 27-24 in Week 13). There also is the real possibility Mahomes’ valiant effort won’t be enough and that we see Chad Henne at some point. This pick hinges on Mahomes staying in the game and being at least close to his best. We also rely on the simple law of averages — the odds against Kansas City losing four times in two seasons to the same opponent. Finally, the Chiefs’ pass rush (second in the league in sacks) should take advantage of Cincy’s cobbled-together offensive line missing three starters and hound Burrow in a way Buffalo failed to last week. The story line, though: Redemption for Mahomes, finally beating his nemesis despite playing with an injury that should have sidelined him.
(Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.)
