The Greens' big, fresh-faced caucus must decide how closely they can work with a National-led government and the party's direction when its long-serving co-leader considers his future.
It was about 11pm on election night, and Darlene Tana had got home from the Greens' party in Auckland's Viaduct. The number 13-ranked candidate had fallen just short of being elected on the party list.
"She'd had quite an emotional night," says co-leader James Shaw. "She had gone through the process of accepting, 'well, I guess it's not to be'. She was just settling down, and her phone started going, ting ting ting."
Through the course of the night, the party vote had increased slowly and incrementally as the bigger urban polling places completed their counts and reported back. Late in the evening, the vote share had increased enough to give the Greens one more MP – Tana was one of the last candidates elected to Parliament, on the preliminary count.
That count gave the Greens an unprecedented three electorates seats – Auckland Central, Wellington Central and Rongotai – and another 11 list candidates to make up their numbers to 14. "I'm really stoked to have her," Shaw tells Newsroom.
READ MORE: * The known unknowns and the uncertain certainties for business * Back-channels shift sands on which National’s housing and tax package is built * Lan Pham goes from hermit life to public life * Oh so close, but election uncertainty leaves markets on edge * Winston’s move next as Luxon and Seymour hold fire
There's a slim chance of a 15th MP, when the Electoral Commission finishes counting the remaining 567,000 special votes. That would give the party its biggest caucus. The Greens have traditionally performed well in special votes, but they'd need to increase their vote by a hefty 0.64 percent relative to other parties, to get an additional MP.
If they do get there, Christchurch Central candidate Kahurangi Carter will join her party colleagues in Parliament – and just on the off-chance, she'll be flying into Wellington this morning to take part in the two-day Parliamentary Service induction for new MPs.
What does a party do on being relegated to opposition? An early priority will be to develop an opposition strategy and allocate portfolios, so MPs can swot up over Christmas. Some of the new MPs bring valuable skills and experience, like the charismatic and capable Lan Pham, a former ECan regional councillor with years of expertise in freshwater ecology.
Or former Ngāti Hine Forestry Trust chief executive Hūhana Lyndon, who oversaw the planting of 640ha of mānuka by trainees. Or Fa'anānā Efeso Collins, the former Auckland councillor and mayoral candidate who has experience working with young people and community organisations.
For the new caucus, there will be a rethink on party policies and priorities, and the matters on which they want to press the new government. And for the co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson, freed from ministerial duties, there will be an expectation that they renew and rebuild relationships with the communities the Greens represent.
Perhaps the biggest question will be how close a relationship the Greens want with the National-led government, which they regard as New Zealand's most conservative in many years.
Shaw, who garnered some cross-party respect in his work as climate change minister for the past six years, is gutted at the prospect of much of that being undone.
At present all the Crown revenue from the emissions trading scheme goes straight into the Treasury's Climate Emergency Response Fund, where it is ring-fenced for climate projects. But National intends to put that money into tax cuts, instead, which it controversially describes as a "carbon dividend".
Shaw plans to talk to ministers in the new government about that. "They have a real problem on their hands, because if they get rid of that funding, then they're not going to have anything to achieve the nationally-determined contribution into the Paris Agreement. And so they're not going to be able to hit their target. And I don't think that they've considered that."
These are the questions being asked by many decision-makers with responsibility for climate mitigation and adaptation.
Wellington mayor Tory Whanau, who was previously the Greens' chief of staff at Parliament, faces the cancellation of the hard-fought Let's Get Wellington Moving transport investment plan. The programme includes mass rapid transport (MRT) between Wellington Railway Station and Island Bay.
She's urgently pulling together a meeting with Wellington's new Green MPs Julie Anne Genter and Tamatha Paul as well as Labour's Greg O'Connor, in the hope of putting a joint case to the new government.
"I know the National Party have ruled it out," she tells Newsroom. "But I'm still keen to try and collaborate with them to get some of the outcomes that will help urban development and a MRT."
Auckland Light Rail, also facing cancellation by National, is looking at public-private partnership financing solutions in the hope of winning over its new political masters, and Whanau says that could be an option for Wellington MRT, too.
She's met previously with National's infrastructure spokesperson Chris Bishop and transport spokesperson Simeon Brown. "I think they're going to be really good to work with. They are pragmatic. They want to see the economic benefits of MRT.
"I really want to reiterate to them, look, Wellington City has spoken, they want this. So can we respect that and deliver something together that we can both be happy with?"
In April 2009, the opposition Greens leaders Jeanette Fitzsimons and Russel Norman signed a memorandum of understanding with Prime Minister John Key, to work together on specific areas: a national cycleway, and retrofitting home insulation to tens of thousands of homes. The insulation scheme was so successful that Energy and Resources Minister Gerry Brownlee sought and gained Budget funding to double its scale.
But both parties took their time before doing that deal. It was six months into the Key Government before the two sides decided there was sufficient alignment and goodwill to reach a formal understanding.
Shaw won't speculate on whether that might be a possibility, this time. "We will always seek to be constructive and try to advance good green change on the basis of our manifesto, if that possibility presents itself," he says.
"But ultimately, the new government's got to form, we've got to see what the shape of it is, and what their appetite is for anything other than what looks like a pretty right-wing agenda."
Then there's the leadership: James Shaw's co-leadership has twice come under internal challenge from the party's left-wing fringe. So do all political careers end in failure, or after nearly nine years as a leader, can he depart on his own terms?
If it's left to him, it's likely he will want to ensure the new MPs and caucus have found their feet before considering the question of his future in the leadership. "I will turn my mind to it in the next three years," he tells Newsroom.
Tory Whanau acknowledges her disappointment that the Greens face spending the next three years in opposition, but she says there's an importance and urgency to the country's environmental initiatives that means they have to find a way to work with the new government.
"We're going to have to try and make some deals, even from opposition," she says. "I haven't lost hope that we can still achieve some really progressive wins, but in creative ways."
There are policies she likes – such as Act's proposal to return a share of regionally-collected GST to cash-strapped councils, to help them with infrastructure costs.
But a particular concern for councils like hers is National's intention to repeal the Three Waters reform legislation, with no clear alternative model to put in its place yet.
The forecast costs of getting New Zealand's drinking water, wastewater and stormwater infrastructure up to first world standards are eye-watering – about $185 million over the next 30 years according to Internal Affairs officials. National expects councils (many already at their borrowing limits) to find ways to get together and finance those costs themselves.
"I am worried because it will have a significant impact on our long term plan, not just for our council, but for every other council," Whanau says. "The reality is we cannot afford it.
"We cannot afford to have it on our balance sheet and that's why we support reform. I'm just hoping that now that they're in power, and they get across the whole water reform problem, that perhaps they'll tweak the current Three Waters proposal, but not do away with it completely. Because I think we'll be in a really huge mess if we don't.
"I would say many councils are reaching their debt capacity now, and that will not allow us to work on the other problems in our cities. The sheer cost is a very big problem."
"I would have to say Tamatha Paul. She's future leader of that party." – Tory Whanau, Wellington mayor
From the point of view of an urban mayor, she says, she would appreciate it if the Labour and Greens opposition could find ways to work with the National-led government on some of the more intractable and long term problems facing her city and New Zealand.
"This is the next generation of the Green Party, who I think are really going to revitalise it further, make it bigger, grow the vote," she says. "I would be not surprised if one of the co-leaders, perhaps James, stepped down after a year and [they] start identifying his replacement.
"I don't know who they would have in mind. There are some talented people like Teanau Tuiono and Julie Anne Genter, or under the Green Party process you can actually elect leaders that aren't currently in Parliament. So they may be scoping people out there too."
She gives a particular shout-out to new Wellington Central MP Tamatha Paul. "She's future leader of that party. And that's what I think."
