Zack Polanski’s Green Party rocked British politics with victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election leaving Sir Keir Starmer with months to save his premiership.
In a devastating blow to the Prime Minister, Labour’s vote collapsed so badly that it fell to a humiliating third place behind Nigel Farage’s Reform in the previously rock-solid Greater Manchester constituency.
After pulling off the stunning win with a majority of more than 4,400, Green candidate and plumber Hannah Spencer vowed to fight for working people and stop their efforts “lining the pockets of billionaires”.
The seismic result, which represents the Greens’ first-ever Westminster by-election win, will spark panic among Labour MPs even in Labour strongholds that they could be ousted at the next general election.
Celebrating the swing of 27.5% from Labour to Greens, Mr Polanski said: “If we see a swing like this at the next general election, there will be a tidal wave of new Green MPs.”
More immediately, the by-election result will mean that if Labour gets a hammering at the May elections for local councils, including in London, as well as for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly, it looks increasingly likely to trigger a leadership challenge to Sir Keir.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander acknowledged that Labour would have to "reflect and learn from" its defeat.
On Friday morning, she told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: “It makes me even more determined than I have ever been to deliver the change that the country voted for in 2024 and that is an economy where we've got investment coming in, where our public services are of a standard that the public deserve and rightly expect."
She also criticised the Green Party's "idealism", saying: "The people of Gordon and Denton have now got an MP who might have well meaning but ultimately misplaced idealism. The world is not a soft and fluffy place at the moment."
The Gorton outcome will send political shockwaves through London, and other cities, where the Greens already have a strong following.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, called the result a “seismic moment”.
The “future of British politics looks more uncertain than at any stage” since the end of World War Two, he added.
Professor Robert Ford, an elections expert at the University of Manchester, said the result was a “nightmare scenario” for the Government.
“They have fallen into the electoral Valley of Death. Rejected in the centre. Rejected on the right. And now rejected on the left,” he said.
Ms Spencer, 34, stormed to the historic victory for her party with 14,980 votes, and a majority of 4,402 votes, despite polls which had predicted a very close result.
Reform UK’s candidate Matt Goodwin got 10,578 votes, with Labour’s Angeliki Stogia trailing on 9,364, down from 18,555 in the 2024 general election, when the turnout was similarly high.
Conservative candidate Charlotte Cadden received just 706 votes, with the Liberal Democrats getting 653.
The Labour Party, which was briefing that it was confident of winning even after close of the polls at 10pm, will be left reeling by the result.
It means that Sir Keir’s party now face insurgent political forces on the Left, with the Greens and its outspoken leader Mr Polanski, and on the Right from Reform.
The collapse in the Labour vote is particularly bad for the Prime Minister as he and other Labour chiefs blocked Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from being the party’s candidate.
The Green surge also opens up the prospect of a huge increase in potential Labour losses at the May elections, and the next general election expected in 2029, if the party gains a huge chunk of the Left-leaning vote.
“All eyes will be on whether or not the Greens’ success in Gorton and Denton gives them a boost in the national polls just weeks before the 7 May devolved and local elections,” added Sir John.
The Greens’ victory blew out the water Labour’s claim to be the only option for anti-Reform voters in the May local elections, deepening the electoral challenge for the governing party.
Ms Spencer vowed to earn voters’ trust and to fight for working class communities struggling with the cost-of-living crisis.
In her victory speech, she said: “Working hard used to get you something. It got you a house, a nice life, holidays, it got you somewhere.
“But now working hard, what does that get you? Because talk to anyone here and they will tell you, the people work hard but can’t put food on the table, can’t get their kids school uniforms, can’t put their heating on, can’t live off the pension they worked hard to save for, can’t even begin to dream about ever having a holiday, ever.
“Because life has changed. Instead of working for a nice life, we’re working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry.
“And I don’t think it’s extreme or radical to think working hard should get you a nice life.”
Full result of the Gorton and Denton by-election
Hannah Spencer (Green) 14,980 (40.69%, +27.53%)
Matt Goodwin (Reform) 10,578 (28.73%, +14.67%)
Angeliki Stogia (Lab) 9,364 (25.44%, -25.32%)
Charlotte Cadden (C) 706 (1.92%, -5.98%)
Jackie Pearcey (LD) 653 (1.77%, -2.05%)
Sir Oink A-Lot (Loony) 159 (0.43%)
Nick Buckley (Advance UK) 154 (0.42%)
Joseph O'Meachair (Rejoin) 98 (0.27%)
Dan Clarke (Libertarian) 47 (0.13%)
Sebastian Moore (Soc Dem) 46 (0.12%)
Hugo Wils (Comm Lge) 29 (0.08%)
Green maj 4,402 (11.96%)
26.43% swing Labour to Green
Electorate 77,501; Turnout 36,814 (47.50%, +0.70%)
2024: Labour majority 13,413 (36.69%)
Turnout 36,560 (46.80%)
Reform accused the Greens of “cheating” in the election, amid reports of family voting.
Mr Goodwin said: "I think the progressives were told how to vote, and I think what you saw was a coalition of Islamists and woke progressives that came together to dominate a constituency. And many people in this country will look at Gorton and Denton and be appalled by what they see."
Labour Party chairwoman Anna Turley lamented the "clearly disappointing" result, saying: "By-elections are normally difficult for the party of government, and this election was no different.”
The contest was triggered by former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne standing down for health reasons.
