A legal victory ruling in favour of Mayor Andy Burnham's decision to go ahead with major bus reform could finally give Greater Manchester's passengers the London-style transport system they've been waiting for.
The judge's decision on Wednesday saw the collapse of a case brought by bus operators, lifting the barrier for authority leaders to take control of running the buses for the first time since 1986, the only region to do so outside London since that time.
Under the new franchised system, Greater Manchester authorities will be in the driver's seat when it comes to bus planning, with services run under contract by private operators.
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It means the end of a set-up branded by leaders as 'fragmented and incoherent'; a network in which more than 830 services are run by 30 operators - using 150 ticket types.
Mr Burnham has promised that the £135m transition will provide a single integrated London-style transport system over Greater Manchester's buses and trams. It was originally planned that by 2025 all buses will have been franchised and rail services will then be brought in to 'complete the network vision by the end of the decade'. Also aimed at persuading more people to use public transport over cars, success could be crucial to the region's commitment to reducing congestion, air pollution and reaching its carbon netural target.
Mr Burnham said that he would give more details on Monday, and there could now be a new timeline.
So how do the architects of reform plan to improve life for passengers?
The biggest visible change will be the colour of the buses - with one uniform livery akin to the pre-Thatcher days of the iconic orange Manchester bus, although the new colour is yet to be decided. This branding will extend to ticketing.
Here are the other objectives laid out in GMCA papers:
Passenger experience
"You can only truly call it public transport if it’s accessible to all of the public," said Mayor Andy Burnham last year.
Plans promise a smooth-running system in which technology is harnessed to give passengers up-to-date information on the location of their buses, and how that might impact the rest of their journey by train or Metrolink.
Value for money is also a promise, in both passenger fares and those services subsidised by the taxpayer. Routes which are currently over-dosed with buses because profit margins are high will be trimmed back, with those resources moved to less-serviced areas or to boost passenger facilities.
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There is also a plan to make half of Greater Manchester’s bus fleet - around 800 vehicles - electric within five years, aiming for an entirely zero-carbon fleet by 2032.
Some money was already provided towards that goal in the public transport funding announced by the Treasury last year, but overall, leaders want nearly £1bn in further capital for physical improvements to the bus network.
There will be, said Mr Burnham last year, "better, clearer on-board travel information so people know where they are going and where they need to get off, encouraging people to take them for more journeys."
He said accessibility would also be improved for the visually impaired.
Stations, stops and interchanges, meanwhile, will be 'clean, comfortable and safe', as well as conveniently located.
Aided by investment in bus priority lanes on the highways and technology to track traffic and disruption, services will be 'punctual' and will turn up 'when and where' they are expected to.
Passenger fares
Years ago in Greater Manchester - before deregulation - passengers could use just the one ticket to get a train and a bus across the region. It's a perk the region has struggled to replicate in the decades since.
With deregulation came an end to the co-operative years of council control.
For many years now, passengers have been calling for a ticketing system like the one used in London, where passengers are enjoying their 18th year of the Oyster card and can now 'beep on' with their mobile or credit card at the start of their journey by bus and 'tap off' at their last train or Tube stop.
A single bus fare in Greater Manchester can cost more than £4 - and if a passenger wants to take multiple buses on any given day the costs ramp up as there is no daily cap across modes as in London, where a similar ticket would be £1.55.
That transport dream is now within touching distance, as the architects of reform promise one simple integrated ticketing system, easy to understand with simplified fare brands allowing for flexible use of tickets across different bus services - and other modes of transport.
Technology will allow passengers to 'tap on' and off with their mobiles and bank cards, with price 'capping' to allow for flexibility across the network and conurbation.
Ticketing will be adapted to new post-pandemic ways of working with, for example, a weekly ticket for people who don't need to commute every day.
Greater Manchester’s bid envisages a much simpler fare structure, with hop-on-hop off flat-rate tickets - so people can get on another bus within the hour without paying again - and overall fares reduced by around 25pc.
This would come at a price, which is partly why Greater Manchester put in a bid to the government’s ‘Bus Services Improvement Plan’ fund, or BSIP.
Its calculations show a rising central government subsidy of between £10m and £60m - by 2030 - would be required to keep fares at those levels, although the impact of Covid on passenger numbers makes forecasts harder than usual.
Network Integration
Up to now, the hotchpotch of operators and their conflicting priorities has been, according to critics of deregulation, a barrier to integrating both ticketing and the overall transport network.
Leaders say no more.
Routes will be created in response to demand, running passengers between areas of housing, employment, education and training.
The plan envisages 70 new bus routes across Greater Manchester on which a ten-minute service would operate.
It promises to create a ‘minimum “turn up and go” frequency’ that would be at least every 10 minutes during the day, Monday to Saturday, “to form a ‘London-style network’.”
It also promises up to 20 routes with ‘24 hour services’.
Longer-term, and reliant on further funding, plans include 'super bus' corridors akin to the Leigh Guided Busway on routes including to and from Manchester Airport.
There are also plans to improve bus routes to major employment sites.
Bus services will be run even if they do not meet current criteria of profit objectives. Services will ‘complement’ each other and act as feeder services to rail and Metrolink services.
Interchanges will be located to minimise journey times and changes. The network will be ‘stable and reliable’, with any changes ‘carefully considered’ as to their impact on the network as a whole.
According to Transport for Greater Manchester, around £135m will be needed for the initial transition into the franchised system, to be funded through a combination of one-off local authority contributions, income from previous and future rises to the mayor's precept and cash returned by the government under Greater Manchester's devolution deal.
The first phase, according to intiial plans, would not come into effect until 2023. This could now be later.
How did we get here?
It was back in June 2017 that the GMCA decided to use the powers set out in the Transport Act 2000 - as amended by the 2017 Bus services Act as part of the Greater Manchester devolution agreement - to prepare an assessment of a proposed bus franchising scheme for Greater Manchester.
Nearly four years later, after two rounds of consultations - repeated in light of the pandemic - and with feedback from 12,500 respondents, Mayor Andy Burnham rubber-stamped the plans for reform.
Many bus operators, meanwhile, fought the franchising model, arguing it would lead to fare rises and fail to turn around falling passenger numbers. They have called instead for a ‘partnership’ set-up where they can retain more control.
On Wednesday, a judge ruled against Stagecoach and Rotala, which runs Diamond Bus North West, in a judicial review of the proposed bus reform process. Both argued the consultation was unlawful because it did not properly take into account the impact of Covid-19.
OneBus, a body representing all the bus operators in the region, have pointed to the figures which show how passenger numbers fare better under private control.
In 2019, OneBus did step forward with a 'partnership' proposal. But Andy Burnham said a partnership option would not 'provide the maximum value for public subsidy or unlock the benefits of an integrated public transport system' as a franchising model will.
The process may have taken five years, but the voices of dissent around Greater Manchester’s deregulated system had been loud and clear for decades.
Year after year, as the Manchester Evening News reported on councillors’ reluctant approval to cut or reduce yet another round of bus services, the calls for reform continued.
Because the buses are run by private bus firms, there has been an emphasis on profits and ticket prices have risen faster than inflation.
In the meantime, passenger numbers have continued to decline.
From 2008 to 2018, the network lost 39m journeys, a 17pc drop.
Transport for Greater Manchester has for decades now subsidised the network, supporting financially those services which would otherwise be axed by operators for not turning a profit.
These subsidies, plus additional bills for concessionary travel and fuel duty, cost the taxpayer £100m a year, including £10m for school routes. In areas like Stockport, Bolton and Wigan, which don't have Metrolink, costs are higher.
But with cash-strapped councils looking to save money wherever possible, supporting every bus service no longer deemed viable by firms like Stagecoach has become an increasingly tall order.
In 2015, a year in which more than 50 services were cut or reduced, Andrew Fender, Transport for Greater Manchester’s former chairman, described the route losses for passengers as the ‘worst in living memory’.
Since then, as operators have battled to maximise the return to shareholders, those reductions have only continued.
What Next?
On Wednesday, Mayor Andy Burnham described the ruling as 'truly fantastic news for everyone outside London who wishes to see a return to a bus service that puts people ahead of profit'.
However, he also alluded to some of the potential pitfalls that lie head.
In a message to operators - who could be preparing to appeal the decision - he added: "I now ask them to accept the clear ruling and allow us to crack on and give the people of Greater Manchester what they want."
He referenced the Government's 'commitment to levelling up' and net zero ambitions, a reminder of the need for both post-Covid and longer-term funding. The devastating impact of the pandemic has led to big Governernment bailouts, with an 11th hour extension of funding this month saving a raft of services in Greater Manchester.
But the Department for Transport (DfT)has made it clear that this latest tranche of cash is for the next six months only, and will be the last Covid rescue package coming our way.
In light of this, and concerns that Boris Johnson's £3bn 'Bus Back Better' package has been used for emergency Covid funding while Greater Manchester waits to hear a verdict on its own bid, the financial challenges ahead as the region claws its way out of the pandemic cannot be underestimated.
Even taking into account Covid, the consultation papers in the decision-making process by Greater Manchester Combined Authority now ruled to have been lawful, found that regulating the network will still provide best value for the taxpayer.
But the success of bus reform here - and in other regions like Liverpool City Region and South Yorkshire - relies on many factors. Passenger numbers are hovering at around 75pc following the pandemic, with some vulnerable passengers reluctant to return amid flucutating infection rates. A concerning absence of firm funding guarantees from Government comes amid continued warnings from operators that more service cuts could lie ahead. Mr Burnham must also convince taxpayers that the scheme warrants an increase in rates.
As one official said on Wednesday: "The only issue we are facing is having the right level of budget to bring about the services that the public are demanding."
This week's ruling is no doubt cause for celebration and will bring hope to thousands of passengers who rely on public transport to access work, healthcare and their loved ones, but the journey ahead will not be without its challenges.
What does Stagecoach say?
In a statement, Stagecoach said it believed the GMCA’s process had ‘failed to meet the standards on proper evidence and analysis required by law’.
A spokesman added: “We are disappointed at the decision of the Court. This case was never about the principle of mayoral combined authorities being able to decide to introduce bus franchising.
“We absolutely respect that democratic right. However, the Bus Services Act 2017 makes very clear that authorities must meet specified standards on proper evidence and analysis in pursuing this process.
“It was our view that the process followed by Greater Manchester Combined Authority (“GMCA”) in assessing the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on its bus franchising plans did not meet those legal requirements.”
But, they said they accepted the court’s decision and vowed to ‘work constructively with GMCA to help deliver the new network and the government’s wider objectives, adding that they ‘look forward to the Mayor securing the significant taxpayer support required to deliver the franchising system.
They added: “Across the country, we are ready to help transport authorities deliver better buses in their regions, including through Enhanced Partnerships, which can deliver fast, practical improvements for local communities.
“There is a huge opportunity for buses to help drive a better, fairer and greener future for Greater Manchester. Our priority has always been to support that objective by delivering the best and most sustainable bus network for the region in the quickest and most effective way possible.
“We have been in regular and constructive contact with GMCA to offer our ideas on how to improve the bus network. Looking ahead, we will continue to work in partnership with the Mayor and the Combined Authority to recover from the pandemic and ensure the region has a sustainable, high quality bus network for the long term.”
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