If the ancient Greeks are to be believed, the rivalry between the current great powers, America and China, will lead to war. American political scientist, Graham Allison popularised the situation as “Thucydides’s Trap”. In a 2013 article for the New York Times, he lamented the “dynamic inherent when a rising power becomes more confident, a ruling power fears losing its edge, and entangling alliances on each side drive the parties toward war.” He said that ancient Greek historian Thucydides concluded war is fostered by “[conflicting] interests, fear, and honour” between states.
However prescient Allison may prove to be, he discounts the options and choices of the smaller players in geopolitics. Thucydides pointed that there were other city-states apart from the great powers, Sparta and Athens. During the great power struggle, these lesser powers became the spectators, the victims, or both. As the world watches the rising superpowers staggering towards battle, smaller countries need to nimbly thread a difficult path.
The Cold War of the late 20th century divided the world into zones, creating different international systems. The actors attempted to influence other parties to join their blocs. Seen from a Cold War perspective, the Quad - a ‘dialogue’ between Japan, USA, Australia and India - is also designed to divide the world into two camps: a democratic, standard-bearer of rule-based order; and its antithesis. Currently, the democratic camp is establishing a new multilateral security structure based on shared values and interests, including the rule of law, freedom of navigation, respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, peaceful dispute resolution, free markets, and free trade.
