Despite praise for running a grassroots EU election campaign aimed at revitalising the fortunes of France's conservative Republicans Party (LR), François-Xavier Bellamy's presence on the hustings has failed to capture the imagination of the traditional right-wing electorate.
Bellamy, lead candidate for the centre-right LR, has been calling on right-wing voters to make a fresh start.
He says he wants to devote himself to a "new generation" of traditional, Gaullist voters that have refused to be poached by either the far-right National Rally (RN) or the centrist administration of Emmanuel Macron.
In an interview published by French daily Le Figaro on Monday, Bellamy made a rousing declaration that it was "time to rebuild this political family, which alone can respond to the aspirations of the country".
This comes as the outgoing MEP's popularity hovers at under 8 percent in the polls, just a few days before Sunday's vote.
"I want to dedicate myself to this new beginning," he assured.
"And to make it a success, all we need is the support of all the people of France who aspire to see the rise of a political movement that is clear about its values and demanding in its action."
Pour la tête de liste des Républicains, les élections européennes doivent permettre de bâtir un «vrai contre-pouvoir». Très critique à l’égard d’Emmanuel Macron, le candidat se dit « fier » de sa campagne.
— Le Figaro (@Le_Figaro) June 4, 2024
→ https://t.co/A93onpuoaa pic.twitter.com/4ONGiOMeXQ
Collapse of LR
Bellamy's rallying cries comes against the backdrop of an exponential decline in fortunes for France's mainstream right over the past decade.
The party formerly known as the UMP (Union Pour un Mouvement Populaire) has faced a barrage of electoral setbacks.
There was Nicolas Sarkozy's 2012 presidential defeat and François Fillon's failed 2017 campaign that was destroyed by a multi-million euro corruption scandal invloving his wife.
That was followed by the implosion of Valérie Pécresse's 2022 crusade for the Elysée Palace that saw her garner less than 5 percent of the vote.
Once holding over 300 seats during Sarkozy's presidency between 2007 and 2012, the French conservatives have fallen to fourth place in the National Assembly, holding only 64 seats.
However, Bellamy has repeatedly underscored: "If you want to rebuild, now is the time", sending a message directely addressed to right-wing voters who have joined the ranks of the far-right RN or Macron's presidential majority.
'Democratic crisis'
Following a televised debate on 23 May between Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and the RN's leader and Eurocandidate Jordan Bardella, Bellamy denounced the rigid nature of the broadcast – saying the event revealed "a deep democratic crisis ... Because it was staged".
His outburst was seen by more than five million people on France 2 television the day after debate, and gave some wind to his sails as he relentlessly continued his camaign tour around the country.
After visiting the prestigious Sciences Po university in Paris – which was occupied by pro-Palestinian students – and the Fresnes prison in Normandy following the deaths of two prison officers killed in an attack on their van, Bellamy entered the home stretch of his campaign in the wake of his France 2 rant.
His virulent attack on the debate was widely relayed on social networks and even hailed by his MEP rival on the left, Raphaël Glucksmann.
Je voudrais commencer par vous dire que j'ai hésité à venir ce soir.#LEvenement #France2 #Européennes2024 pic.twitter.com/oh4IXo6UHK
— Fx Bellamy (@fxbellamy) May 23, 2024
While his campaign has been considered as "good" by his supporters and even his opponents, he has still failed to gain traction in the polls.
"Everything remains possible, but his good campaign, his embodiment, his very good image ... for the moment it's not making an impact," said the director of the Ifop polling group Frédéric Dabi as Bellamy's daily ratings wavered between 7 and 8 percent.
Bellamy's team expected his post-debate vitriol to enable LR to "break the sound barrier" of the European campaign, but he remains stagnant in the polls – far behind the NR, which is surging ahead at over 30 percent.
Dabi maintains there is a "positioning problem" for LR as they're stuck between Macron's Renaissance and the far-right.
"The vice-like grip continues," says Dabi, pointing out that in a recent Ifop rolling poll 21 percent of Pécresse's voters in 2022 support Jordan Bardella today.
Low key
The LR presidential candidate's score of under 5 percent in 2022 still remains traumatic for the party, which would have no representatives in the European Parliament if Bellamy performs as poorly in the polls as Pécresse.
Bellamy has been campaigning since mid-January and has been travelling extensively, holding public meetings – sometimes with a few hundred people, sometimes just a few dozen.
Campaign manager Othman Nasrou has maintained a desire to promote a grassroots campaign, relying in particular on "activists and local elected representatives to amplify [the message] beyond his doorstep".
Unlike the 2019 European elections – when LR made the mistake of organising large rallies to "speak only to the converted" – the right has organised only two this time. The first was in Paris in March and the second will be held on Wednesday 5 June in the party's stronghold on the Côte d'Azur.
In the article published in Le Figaro this week, Bellamy aknowleged "past disappointments", but said he was committed not "to remake history, but to write the future of a renewed, serious and coherent right-wing".
In the final days of his European election campaign, Bellamy – alluding to his party's checkered past – has emphasised he does not consider himself "either a judge nor an accountant of the record" of the right.
