The Grand National is almost here - and while chance and fortune favours the brave, history never lies.
The idea of finding the winner of the 40-strong field in the Grand National can be daunting. However, with so much information at your disposal, there has never been a better time to be a horse racing punter.
The first Grand National took place way back in 1939 and was won by a horse named Lottery, which is an appropriate name given the unpredictable nature of the iconic event. Over the years, several positive and negative trends have emerged - and fans can apply these to pick their favourites from the field.
For example, the last seven-year-old horse to win the Grand National was in 1949. While Tiger Roll won the 2019 Grand National as the favourite at 4-1, he was the first winning market leader for nine years - so the trends rarely lie.
In recent years, horses aged eight or older have the best record. This is because experience is a vital attribute when it comes to the Grand National. You have to go back to 1940 when Bogskar was the last seven-year-old to win the famous event. However, avoid picking a teenager as well as horses under the age of seven.
It is worth noting that only five eight-year-olds have won the last 27 races, with 25 of the last 30 winners aged nine or older. No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or even placed since 1969.
Horses that had last raced over 50 days ago often don’t run well - they have to be in form. Runners that had challenging races at the Cheltenham Festival the previous month traditionally don’t perform well, either.
However, 11 of the last 13 winners were making their Grand National debut. Past Grand National winners and previously placed horses usually don't do so well – although Tiger Roll put a stop to this trend when he returned from his 2018 Grand National triumph to claim victory again in 2019.
In fact, just two of the past winners or placed horses from the previous year’s race have won for 34 years, when 79 have attempted. Horses that finished unplaced in the previous edition of the Grand National can prosper.
Any horse that won or finished placed in a National race (Scottish, Irish and Welsh) often make a bold bid. It also helps if the horse happens to be Irish, given recent form.
Irish-trained horses have won three of the last four renewals. They also have the best overall record, with seven of the last 14 winners coming from their stables and 16 of the last 21 winners were bred in Ireland.
To win the Grand National, horses and jockeys have to successfully navigate two circuits of the course and jump 30 fences in total before reaching the Elbow and galloping for the winning post.
Which fences are key? The most well known is Becher’s Brook , named after Captain Becher, the first man to fall at the imposing ditch who hid in the water on the landing side to avoid being trampled on.
Jumped twice as fence six and fence 22, it is one of the first real tests in the race with a drop on the landing side. It appears somewhat innocuous from the take-off side, but the fence measures almost 6ft from the landing position.
The third of a trio of tricky fences after Becher’s Brook and Foinavon, the Canal Turn sits as fences eight and 24 in the Grand National. It has the potential to cause plenty of traffic if riders misjudge the angle.
Interference at this fence has ruined many races for contenders with pile-ups at both the 1928 and 2001 Grand Nationals.
Who are you backing to win the 2022 Grand National? Let us know in the comments section.
Valentine’s Brook - which gets its name from the 1840 Grand National where horse Valentine vaulted it almost sideways to land hind legs first - is the last real jumping test before home on the second circuit. It is positioned as fence nine and 25.
The tallest fence, the Chair, sees runners clear both the open ditch on take-off and the width of the biggest fence.
It is one of only two obstacles jumped only once on the Grand National course, but it has seen the highest number of fallers than any other fence in the famous marathon.
Last 25 winners of the Grand National and odds
2021 – Minella Times 11-1
2019 – Tiger Roll 4-1 fav
2018 – Tiger Roll 10-1
2017 – One For Arthur 14-1
2016 – Rule The World 33-1
2015 – Many Clouds 25-1
2014 – Pineau De Re 25-1
2013 – Auroras Encore 66-1
2012 – Neptune Collonges 33-1
2011 – Ballabriggs 14-1
2010 – Don’t Push It 10-1 fav
2009 – Mon Mome 100-1
2008 – Comply or Die 7-1 fav
2007 – Silver Birch 33-1
2006 – Numbersixvalverde 11-1
2005 – Hedgehunter 7-1 fav
2004 – Amberleigh House 16-1
2003 – Monty’s Pass 16-1
2002 – Bindaree 20-1
2001 – Red Marauder 33-1
2000 – Papillon 10-1
1999 – Bobbyjo 10-1
1998 – Earth Summit 7-1 fav
1997 – Lord Gyllene 14-1
1996 – Rough Quest 7-1 fav
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