Place your bets!
Olivia Rodrigo or Billie Eilish?
Taylor Swift or Jon Batiste?
Doja Cat or H.E.R.?
And what about Justin Bieber?
The above seven artists are the field-leading 2022 Grammy Awards nominees. On a list dominated primarily by young newcomers, Swift, 32, and Batiste, 35, are the oldest contenders in the highest profile categories. Rodrigo, who turned 19 on Feb. 20, is the youngest, followed by 2020 Grammy queen Eilish, 20.
Not surprisingly, there are multiple scenarios for which of these seven nominees will emerge as the most triumphant when the winners are announced during Sunday's Grammys telecast on CBS.
The event is being held — for the first time in its 64-year history — in Las Vegas. The music world's most prestigious annual awards fete was moved there after COVID-19 omicron protocols led to the cancellation of the originally planned Jan. 31 telecast in front of a live audience at Los Angeles' Crypto.com Arena (formerly Staples Center).
Even less surprisingly, online sportsbooks are once again happily accepting bets in the four most prestigious categories: Album of the Year, Song of the Year, Record of the Year and Best New Artist. The other 81 categories are, at least for now, wager-free — except, perhaps, among friends and family members of the nominees.
"By nature, I am not a gambling man; I am the opposite of a gambler," said Harvey Mason Jr., the CEO of the Recording Academy, under whose auspices the Grammys are presented.
"But moving to Las Vegas this year felt like a challenge, brought on by COVID, and using the opportunity to be in a new location has been really exciting."
How exciting will Sin City be for this year's most nominated artists at the music world's most prestigious, comprehensive and sometimes contentious annual awards?
And will the telecast, hosted by Trevor Noah, help the glittery, performance-dominated show rebound from last year's COVID-restricted edition, which was held in the nearly empty — apart from the socially distanced performers — Los Angeles Convention Center? It drew just 8.8 million TV viewers, down 53% from the 19.7 million viewers who tuned in for the 2020 Grammys.
Place your bets!
Grammy queen Olivia Rodrigo?
Here are four of the possible scenarios that could play out this weekend when the 2022 Grammy Awards take place at the 16,800-capacity MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Scenario 1: Disney TV star-turned-edgy-confessional-pop-music-sensation Rodrigo becomes, at 19, the second youngest artist to ever win Grammys for Album of the Year, Song of the Year, Record of the Year and Best New Artist (and only the third in Grammy history to win in all four categories). The youngest to do so, in 2020, was the then-18-year-old Eilish, who is tied this year with Rodrigo at seven nominations apiece.
Scenario 2: Rodrigo wins in three of the above four categories, but not for Album of the Year. That award instead goes to Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga for "Love for Sale," their heartfelt salute to jazz classics and favorites from the Great American Songbook. The now-retired Bennett becomes — at 95 — the oldest artist to ever win Album of the Year honors.
Scenario 3: Rodrigo wins in three of the above four categories, but not for Album of the Year. That award instead goes to Taylor Swift for "Evermore," the well-crafted if emotionally detached sequel to her "Folklore," last year's Album of the Year Grammy-winner. Should she prevail next Sunday, Swift — who last year became the first female artist to win three Grammys for Album of the Year — will surpass Stevie Wonder, Paul Simon and Frank Sinatra as the first artist to ever win four times in that category.
Scenario 4: None of the above. Joker's wild!
For the record, Batiste — the versatile singing and keyboard-playing musical director of TV's "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" — leads this year's field with 11 nominations, including for Album, Record and Song of the Year.
That's three more nominations than the eight given to Bieber, 28, singer/rapper Doja Cat (real name Amala Ratna Zandile Dlamini), 26, and singer/guitarist H.E.R. (real name: Gabriella Sarmiento Wilson), 24. And it's four nominations more than Rodrigo and Eilish.
But there's a major caveat.
After the votes are tallied, having the most Grammy nominations won't necessarily ensure success for Batiste — a New Orleans-bred jazz artist who has crossed over to pop — when the awards are handed out next Sunday.
Just ask hip-hop legend Jay Z.
He entered the 2018 Grammy telecast with a field-leading eight nominations. He went home winless.
Or ask his even more famous wife, Beyoncé.
In 2017, she had a field-leading nine nominations. She ended up winning just two Grammys, both in minor categories. And while Beyoncé last year overtook Alison Krauss as the female artist with the most Grammy wins (28 to Krauss' 27), she has yet to win for Album, Record or Song of the Year.
Neither has Lizzo, who had a field-leading eight nominations in 2020 — including for Album, Record and Song of the Year, but lost to Eilish in all three of those categories.
"This is America" rapper Childish Gambino, aka actor Donald Glover, is the only Black solo artist since 2009 to win a Grammy for Song of the Year, while jazz piano great Herbie Hancock is the only Black artist to win Album of the Year honors since 2008. Since the Grammys' inception in 1957, only 10 Black artists have won for Album of the Year.
Five of this year's Album of the Year contenders are Black — Batiste, H.E.R., Kanye West, Doja Cat and Lil Nas X. According to several Vegas betting lines, Filipino-American Rodrigo is the clear front-runner to win.
No-go for Adele this year
Providing further intrigue for Sunday's telecast, this is the first year that the number of nominations in the four most prestigious categories — Best New Artist and Album, Song and Record of the Year — have been expanded.
This move encourages a greater range and diversity of nominees, as evidenced by this year's Best New Artist nomination for borders-blurring Pakistani-American polymath Arooj Aftab.
But the expansion to 10 nominees is also likely to split the vote more than in any year since 2018, when the number of nominees rose to eight after holding steady at five nominees for the previous 60 years.
Want more intrigue?
The bestselling release of 2021, county music upstart Morgan Wallen's "Dangerous: The Double Album," did not receive any nominations. Neither did Wallen, whose record company had submitted him in eight Grammy categories. His dearth of nominations reflects the national controversy he ignited last year after a video of a drunken Wallen using the N-word went viral on social media.
Also missing: Taylor Swift, who did not submit her newly rerecorded version of her 2008 album, "Fearless," for Grammy consideration; Drake, who was nominated this year in two Best Rap categories but withdrew both nominations; and Adele, whose multimillion-selling album, "31," came out on Nov. 19, 2021, 70 days after the eligibility period ended.
This year's expanded number of nominees could help shift the balance towards greater inclusivity. Of the seven leading nominees for the 64th annual Grammy Awards four are artists of color and four are women. Canadian-born Bieber is the only white male.
Place your bets!
Album of the Year
Nominees: Jon Batiste, "We Are"; Tony Bennett & Lady Gaga, "Love for Sale"; Justin Bieber, "Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe)"; Doja Cat, "Planet Her (Deluxe)"; Billie Eilish, "Happier Than Ever"; H.E.R., "Back of My Mind"; Lil Nas X, "Montero"; Olivia Rodrigo, "Sour"; Taylor Swift, "Evermore"; Kanye West, "Donda."
Grammy voters have taken much flak, deservedly, over the fact that only two hip-hop artists — Lauryn Hill in 1999 and OutKast in 2003 — have ever won Album of the Year honors. Yet, while outspoken Grammys critic Kanye West has undeniably made several albums worthy of this honor, his so-so "Donda" is not one of them.
To give the Grammy to an undeserving album like this, in an effort to correct slights of the past, would be a misguided attempt at belated damage control. But having West come on stage to accept any award could boost the ratings for the Grammys telecast, whose host, Trevor Noah, has recently been the subject of attacks by West (including a racial slur that led to West's Instagram account being temporarily suspended).
To add to the drama, West's representatives last week charged that he had been barred from performing during the telecast because of his "concerning online behavior." He had not been announced as a performer at the time, or since, and there has been no statement as yet about him from the Recording Academy or CBS.
Now, back to the Album of the Year ballot.
The votes for Lil Nas X and Doja Cat should cancel each other out, just as the votes for Eilish and Swift — last year's Album of the Year victor — will also likely do. The odds (and Vegas betting lines) favor Rodrigo. Her assured debut album, "Sour," captured the zeitgeist of teen angst and youthful aspirations with impressive skill and maturity.
Whether she has the stagecraft to do her songs justice in concert will be determined on her upcoming debut tour. But the Grammys honor recordings, not live performances. And Rodrigo delivered a hit album that wooed teens, tweens and adults alike.
Did you know? Tony Bennett, whose singing is thankfully undiminished by his Alzheimer's disease, won his first two Grammys in 1962 — both for "I Left My Heart in San Francisco." He has since earned 16 more Grammy wins and 39 more nominations, including five this year.
Record of the Year
Nominees: Abba, "I Still Have Faith in You"; Jon Batiste, "Freedom"; Tony Bennett, Lady Gaga, "I Get a Kick Out of You"; Justin Bieber, featuring Daniel Cesar & Giveon, "Peaches"; Brandi Carlile, "Right on Time"; Doja Cat & SZA, "Kiss Me More"; Billie Eilish, "Happier Than Ever"; Lil Nas X, "Montero (Call Me By Your Name)"; Olivia Rodrigo, "Drivers License"; Silk Sonic, "Leave the Door Open."
The 2022 Record of the Year nominations are all over the map, if conspicuously lacking a single country or rock entry.
Does Abba have enough nostalgic appeal with older voters to score an upset win? Perhaps, although Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga's fetching duet on "I Get a Kick Out of You" could be more of a sentimental-journey favorite.
But the Grammys have long coveted youth (and young viewers). And no pop hit in recent years has captured youthful longing and insecurity better than Rodrigo's piano-led "Drivers License," a TikTok-ready ballad that talks about her generation with undeniable feeling and skill.
Did you know? The Swedish group Abba, which last year released its first album of new recordings since 1981, has sold more than 100 million albums worldwide, scored dozens of hit singles and won over a new generation of fans with the hit musical-turned-movie, "Mama Mia!" Until now, Abba had never been nominated for a Grammy before in any category.
Song of the Year
Nominees: Ed Sheeran, "Bad Habits"; Alicia Keys & Brandi Carlile, "A Beautiful Noise"; Olivia Rodrigo, "Drivers License"; H.E.R., "Fight for You"; Billie Eilish, "Happier Than Ever"; Doja Cat, featuring SZA, "Kiss Me More"; Silk Sonic, "Leave the Door Open"; Lil Nas X, "Montero (Call Me by Your Name)," Justin Bieber, featuring Daniel Cesar & Giveon, "Peaches"; Brandi Carlile, "Right on Time."
Where the Record of the Year Grammy honors the performers, Song of the Year honors the writers of the songs.
Carlile's two nominations — one on her own, the other featuring Alicia Keys — will probably cancel each other out. Bruno Mars, who is half of the retro-R&B duo Silk Sonic, is a Grammy favorite for making new music that sounds vintage.
But this should be Rodrigo's year. And both singing "Drivers License" and co-writing it (with Dan Nigro) should win her a double-nod of approval from Grammy voters — despite the one choice expletive in the lyrics (which will surely be excised by CBS censors if she performs the song during the Grammys telecast).
Did you know? In 1959, Italian vocal star Domenico Modugno's "Volare" became the first — and, so far, only — Song of the Year Grammy-winner that featured non-English lyrics.
Best New Artist
Nominees: Arooj Aftab; Jimmie Allen; Baby Keem; Finneas; Glass Animals; Japanese Breakfast; The Kid Laroi; Arlo Parks; Olivia Rodrigo; Saweetie.
A victory in this category can be the commercial kiss of death, commercially speaking, as such past winners as Alessia Cara, Meghan Trainor, Sam Smith, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, Arrested Development, fun and Milli Vanilli can attest.
Or it can signal the official advent of a long, successful career, as such past winners as Adele, John Legend, Carrie Underwood, Alicia Keys, Sheryl Crow and Bette Midler can attest.
But no matter.
Because with no offense to any of the other nominees — especially the unusually talented and daring Arooj Aftab, who performed at the 2021 Carlsbad Music Festival — this is one category in which there is no doubt about who will triumph.
Olivia Rodrigo is not the youngest nominee (at 18, Australian rapper The Kid Laroi is a year younger). But she had a breakout year in 2021 like no other artist since, well, Billie Eilish in 2020. Like Eilish, Rodrigo also managed the rare task of connecting with a core audience of young listeners and transcending that demographic, winning over critics and parents (at least some of whom are also Grammy voters).
Should Doja Cat score an upset victory, she will become the first musician to win a Best New Artist Grammy shortly after announcing that she is ready to shelve her career.
Or, as she put in a post on her Twitter page last week: "I (expletive quit). I can't wait to (expletive) disappear... Everything is dead to me, music is dead, and I'm a (expletive) fool for ever thinking I was made for this ..."
Did you know? Finneas, one of this year's Best New Artist nominees, has shared in eight Grammy Awards wins as the main collaborator of his sister, Billie Eilish. His nomination comes for his first solo album, 2021's "Optimist."
Place your bets!
Biggest Grammy winners and losers
The artists who have won the most Grammy Awards include the late orchestral conductor Georg Solti (31), Quincy Jones and Beyoncé (28 each), Alison Krauss (27), and the late conductor Pierre Boulez (26). Close behind, with 25 each, are Stevie Wonder and the late classical pianist Vladimir Horowitz.
The artists who have been nominated for the most Grammy Awards without winning any include R&B singer Brian McKnight (17), Snoop Dogg (16), Joe Satriani and Bjork (15 each), and — with 14 each — Martina McBride, Dierks Bentley and big band leader Toshiko Akiyoshi. Katy Perry is close behind with 13 nominations and no wins.
The 64th annual Grammy Awards
Hosted by: Trevor Noah
With performances by: Olivia Rodrigo, Billie Eilish, Lil Nas X, BTS, Brandi Carlile & Brothers Osborne, Jack Harlow, Jon Batiste, Foo Fighters, H.E.R., Nas, Chris Stapleton, Cynthia Erivo, Leslie Odom Jr., Ben Platt and Rachel Zegler
Where to watch: 8 p.m. ET Sunday on CBS, airing live from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas and on the Paramount+ streaming service
Grammy Awards Premiere Ceremony
Hosted by: LeVar Burton
With performances by: Jimmie Allen, Ledisi, Mon Laferte, Allison Russell, Curtis Stewart, Madison Cunningham, Falu, Nnenna Freelon, Kalani Pe'a, John Popper, and The Isaacs
When: 3:30 p.m. Sunday (awards will be presented in more than 70 of the 84 Grammy categories)
Where: Online at live.grammy.com and youtube.com/grammy
2022 MusiCares Person of the Year Dinner Concert honoring Joni Mitchell
When: 8 p.m. Friday
With performances by: Herbie Hancock, Chaka Khan, St. Vincent, Sara Bareilles, Mickey Guyton, Jon Batiste, Beck, Black Pumas, Leon Bridges, Allison Russell, Brandi Carlile, Angélique Kidjo, Cyndi Lauper, Lauren Daigle, Stephen Stills, Billy Porter and Pentatonix.
Where: MGM Grand Hotel Marquee Ballroom, Las Vegas
Tickets: $2,500 (all proceeds benefit the nonprofit MusiCares, which provides financial and medical assistance to members of the music community in need)
Online: musicares.org/person-year
———
