- When it comes to markets in the Grains sector, the best read on real fundamentals is the various National Cash Indexes, aka the intrinsic value of the markets.
- At the end of July, we saw these indexes all come in lower than the end of June telling us available stocks-to-use increased over the past month, in some cases to burdensome levels.
- The National Corn Index and National Soybean Index continue to tell interesting tales as well, one of seasonality (Corn) and the other from a technical point of view (Soybean).
There will be a lot of hubbub regarding USDA's next round of monthly Supply and Demand nonsense over the coming days. I can't do anything about that. I've told everyone for roughly 30 years that the markets are a better indicator of supply and demand, yet the bulk of the industry continues to follow those who preach the world of make believe. That's just how it is. If folks haven't figured it out by now, they most likely never will. (Notice I didn't use an absolute in that sentence.) For those who are interested in real supply and demand, but aren't sure what to look for, here is the monthly update I post to my website on the first of every month. If you'd rather wet yourself in anticipation of imaginary numbers, go ahead and skip this piece. It won't hurt my feelings.
