- Much of the BRACE Industry is frothing at the mouth in anticipation of USDA's quarterly Grain Stocks and June Acreage update set for release this coming Friday.
- As I talked about last time, this increases the hedging/investing/trading advantage of those who generally ignore made-up government numbers.
- The Important numbers to keep an eye on Friday closing prices of the various new-crop futures contracts for the week and the month.
As expected, there has been a lot of noise made already this week about this coming Friday’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report and 2024 Acreage update. As I talked about in this space last time, the more people who listen to all the nonsense being talked about in associate with these made-up numbers, the greater the advantage to hedgers/investors/traders who pay as little attention as possible. If folks don’t know to ignore the BRACE Industry by now, they never will. That being said, there are numbers we need to pay close attention to as the week and month come to an end: Friday’s closing prices for December corn, November soybeans, and the three September wheat contracts. The reality is, nothing else matters. Or as my late friend and longtime CBOT floor reporter Gary Wilhelmi put it, “The only price that matters is the close. That’s why I call that pearl of wisdom the Wilhelmi Element. For those that actually follow the markets, rather than chasing the latest government misinformation, we already know available stocks-to-use (as/u) tightened this past quarter across the board. On the other hand, June 1 as/u was looser than the same quarter last year, all based on National Price Indexes (national average cash prices). As for planted acres, as a farmer friend told me Tuesday, “What’s the big deal? Planted acres don’t have to be reported until July 15”. With that as background, let’s look at some important numbers, prices, as June comes to an end.
