There was a point at which Kepa Arrizabalaga appeared to have no long-term future at Chelsea. Countless errors had been made, his confidence had been obliterated, and a new goalkeeper was signed to replace him as number one. Yet he remained at Stamford Bridge.
A key reason as to why was the contract the goalkeeper signed when Chelsea paid £71.6million to sign him from Athletic Club, a world-record fee for a goalkeeper. Kepa agreed to a seven-year deal worth around £190,000-per-week. It was a salary no club – understandably given his form – was willing to take on after his demotion under Frank Lampard.
The length of the contract did offer Kepa protection and for two seasons he played deputy to Edouard Mendy. There were sporadic appearances in the Premier League and outings in domestic cup competitions. A couple of appearances in the Champions League were also made by the Spaniard.
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As each appearance passed without incident, Kepa's confidence was slowly rebuilt. It's why there was interest from clubs in Serie A in the summer transfer window, although the goalkeeper's wages once again proved problematic and no loan deal could be agreed upon.
He started the campaign as second choice to Mendy once more; then came the opportunity Kepa had waited two years for. A knee injury sidelined the Senegal international for four weeks. In that period, Thomas Tuchel was replaced by Graham Potter and Kepa started back-to-backs games against Red Bull Salzburg and Crystal Palace.
Mendy returned for the game at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers but Kepa remained in goal. The following weekend, the 28-year-old produced a stunning performance to ensure Chelsea defeated Aston Villa 2-0. He had also kept clean sheets home and away against AC Milan.
There was a setback in October as Kepa was confirmed to be suffering from plantar fasciitis and missed more than a month of action. The majority of that was during the World Cup break, however, and come the restart of the campaign, the Spain international was back between the posts.
Chelsea's form since the tournament in Qatar has been hugely underwhelming; the Blues' inability to consistently score goals remains an issue. But barring an error against Fulham – and a questionable decision in the defeat to Man City – Kepa has performed well. His shot-stopping ability has certainly been restored.
During the 2019/20 campaign in which Kepa's confidence ebbed away, he conceded 11.3 goals more than expected in the Premier League based on the quality of the shots, per FBRef. No other top-flight goalkeeper underperformed to such a drastic extent, and it highlights why Mendy was subsequently signed from Rennes.
The turnaround this season is stark, although admittedly over a smaller sample size. Kepa has conceded 11 goals in his 14 starts for Chelsea and – based on FBRef's post-shot expected goals model – that is 6.8 fewer than expected given the quality of the shots he has faced.
It is a testament to Kepa's character that he has returned to something akin to his true level. "I think for a goalkeeper it’s even more important when you have continuity because there are a lot of things to be aware of in a game that is not the same in training," he explained earlier this season. "Now I have confidence because I’m playing well, so I have to keep going, keep working."
Barring any training-related injury, Kepa will start for Chelsea against Tottenham on Sunday. There was a time supporters would have felt dread at that prospect. Now it is a very different story. Kepa's redemption is complete.
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