The NFL Draft is never neat or tidy. It’s a frenetic, sloppy mess of trade offers and over-analysis.
Thus, we add to that pile by combining both.
The first round of the 2024 draft will be loaded with big swing trades designed to either jump start a franchise’s rebuild or add the missing piece needed for a Super Bowl run. Here’s where we’ll break down each one and figure out which side came out ahead in the deal.
For an idea of the value each team got, we’ll use two different systems. The first is the well-known Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, derived by the former Dallas Cowboys head coach in the early 1990s. We’ll also include a Bill Belichick-inspired chart discussed by Bill Belichick and brought to life by Pats Pulpit’s Rich Hill.
Of course, there’s more to each deal than just draft assets. It boils down to needs, which players are available and more. Let’s take a look at the trades that defined the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Vikings make a modest move up to land J.J. McCarthy
New York Jets send: 10th overall pick (QB JJ McCarthy), 2024 fourth round pick (129th overall), 2024 fifth round pick (157th overall)
Minnesota Vikings send: 11th overall pick (OT Olu Fashanu), 2024 sixth round pick (203rd overall)
Belichick trade value analysis: The Jets got excess draft value of 13 points, equivalent to the 146th overall pick.
Johnson trade value analysis: The Jets got excess draft value of 11.2 points, equivalent to the 201st overall pick.
The Vikings got the quarterback with whom they’d been linked throughout the pre-draft process and didn’t have to trade any Day 1 or Day 2 picks in order to do so. McCarthy is a gamble, but he’s a modest one whose risk-averse game should at least make the Minnesota offense viable in 2024. Having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson around should help considerably.
The Jets got a little extra Day 3 flair to slide back one spot and take the player they would have taken at No. 10 anyway. Fashanu is a monster and could be the best blocker in the 2024 class. Everyone wins.
Jets grade: A-
Vikings grade: B+
The Vikings strike again, get an edge rusher who means they may not blitz 50 percent of the time in 2024
Jacksonville Jaguars send: 17th overall pick (EDGE Dallas Turner)
Minnesota Vikings send: 23rd overall pick (WR Brian Thomas Jr.), 2024 fifth round pick (167th overall), 2025 third round pick, 2025 fifth round pick
Belichick trade value analysis: The Jaguars got excess draft value of 30 points, equivalent to the 109th overall pick.
Johnson trade value analysis: The Jaguars got excess draft value of 71.9 points, equivalent to the 111th overall pick.
Pundits across the board expected Turner to be selected in the first 10 picks, notably by an Atlanta Falcons team with a definitive need at edge rusher. But Atlanta went with Michael Penix Jr. (… huh) and Turner slid out of the first half of the first round. That made him irresistable to the Vikings, whose blitz-heavy defense spammed extra rushers and forced an overtaxed secondary into entirely too much single coverage situations.
Turner has the chops to fix that, generating pressure from four- or five-man sets. While Minnesota gave up extra value in the deal, it’s not something the team will feel this spring, The Vikings are intent on building a competitive team around J.J. McCarthy, and Turner’s arrival will help them win games even when the offense sputters.
The Jaguars felt they were in good shape to trade back and still be able to address a major need. Without any cornerbacks selected through 17 picks and a lull in the wide receiver market, it was a sensible call. Thomas lingered to 23 and gives Jacksonville a potential WR1 to top a useful, if unspectacular, depth chart.
The question is whether the Jags maximized their value here. There’s nothing wrong with taking a shotgun approach to the draft — it’s what the Patriots did so well for a while there — but the real impact of this deal won’t be felt until next spring.
Jaguars grade: B+
Vikings grade: B
The Cowboys do something, let the Lions overpay to land a stud cornerback
Dallas Cowboys send: 24th overall pick (CB Terrion Arnold), 2025 seventh round pick
Detroit Lions send: 29th overall pick, 2024 third round pick (73rd overall)
Belichick trade value analysis: The Cowboys got excess draft value of 29 points, equivalent to the 110th overall pick.
Johnson trade value analysis: The Cowboys got excess draft value of 124 points, equivalent to the 94th overall pick.
The Lions overpaid here. They did so for a good reason; their secondary was a mess and the chance to take arguably 2024’s top cornerback prospect was suddenly a possibility. So Detroit gave up a top 80 pick to move up five spots, but did so for a blue chip player at a premium position.
There’s logic to that, even if the value stinks. Arnold is a first-team All-American who had five interceptions and 17 passes defensed at Alabama last season. He’s explosive and capable of playing inside and out, giving him the skills to be a true island defender in the NFL.
A trade back may not have been the move Cowboys fans wanted, but it’s a smart one. Dallas hemhorraged talent this offseason as a salary cap crunch left the team to sit and watch as the rest of the NFL added veteran talent. Adding a bonus third round pick — one in the first half of the round, even — is great value for a team that badly needed it. And plenty of great players will still be on the board at No. 29.
Cowboys grade: A-
Lions grade: B
The Chiefs make a modest move to land their new Tyreek Hill
Buffalo Bills send: 28th overall pick (WR Xavier Worthy), 2024 fourth round pick (133rd overall) 2024 seventh round pick (248th overall)
Kansas City Chiefs send: 32nd overall pick, 2024 third round pick (95th overall), 2024 seventh round pick (221st overall)
Belichick trade value analysis: This trade is perfectly balanced, with each team giving up 240 points worth of draft value.
Johnson trade value analysis: The Bills got excess draft value of 12.5 points, equivalent to the 197th overall pick.
The Chiefs didn’t have a reliable deep threat either of the last two years and still won back-to-back Super Bowls. Now they get the fastest runner in modern combine history in Worthy, who ran the 40-yard dash in 4.21 seconds and is, to put it lightly, quick.
Is he complete enough as a receiver to lift the Chiefs offense? Maybe not, but he doesn’t necessarily have to be. Patrick Mahomes’ average target distance fell to a career low 6.5 yards last season. If Worthy can light it up for a few deep targets per game it wouldn’t just create big gains but provide the breathing room the rest of the offense needs to thrive.
It’s easy to drag the Bills for trading back without picking up too much in return, but Worthy wasn’t a fit for their offense that badly needs a bigger, more versatile wideout than the Texas star. Of course, giving the team that’s been a thorn in their side in the playoffs the added dimension the Chiefs need while extracting minimal value in return adds salt to that wound. It’s not great, no.
Bills grade: C
Chiefs grade: B
The Bills trade back *again* so someone else can draft a wideout
Buffalo Bills send: 32nd overall pick (WR Xavier Legette), 2024 sixth round pick (200th overall)
Carolina Panthers send: 33rd overall pick, 2024 fifth round pick (141st overall)
Belichick trade value analysis: The Bills got excess draft value of 5 points, equivalent to the 195th overall pick.
Johnson trade value analysis: The Bills got excess draft value of 14.1 points, equivalent to the 193rd overall pick.
Buffalo has plenty of holes to fill after shedding talent this offseason amidst a veteran lineup and salary crunch. The Bills also had a massive need at wideout, so trading back twice for minimal value while other teams drain the pool of talent at receiver is… not ideal.
On the plus side, trading into the first pick of the second round gives the team an extra 20 hours of fielding trade offers and other potential moves backward as more wideouts roll off the board. And if there’s no receiver to be found there are several solid defensive backs who’d be proper picks on Day 2.
Did Carolina really have to trade up to make this happen? Legette is big and fast, so there’s some A.J. Brown/DK Metcalf potential to his game. But he was also largely considered a Day 2 selection. And having the first pick of the second round is a luxury that allows you a full day of fielding trades from increasingly desperate teams looking to pull from a dwindling pool of instant impact rookies.
Was Legette, a player with exactly one season in five spent at South Carolina with more than 167 receiving yards, worth it? We’ll see.
Bills grade: C
Panthers grade: C-
