The Government’s controversial plans for a shake-up of the census may now be forced on hold, with Labour indicating it will no longer provide the votes needed for the modernisation process to get through Parliament.
The coalition last year announced plans to abandon the five-yearly count due to rising costs and problems with data collection, instead relying on administrative data already collected by government agencies and an annual survey of a subset of the population.
The proposal has attracted criticism from some who fear it will reduce the reliability of government statistics and associated spending, with officials warning disabled people, rainbow communities and small ethnic minority groups could be among those disproportionately affected.
As previously reported by Newsroom, the move away from a periodic census would require changes to so-called reserved provisions in the Electoral Act, which cannot be repealed or amended without either a 75 percent majority in Parliament or a public referendum.
Labour initially offered its tentative backing for the modernisation process, but said it had not committed to “unqualified support” given the significance of the issues involved and the risks associated with the Government’s plans.
With Parliament’s justice committee on Friday issuing its reports on the two bills that would underpin the new model, the main opposition party has officially pulled its support, leaving the Government well short of the ‘supermajority’ it needs.
In a differing view attached to the select committee report, Labour said it was not opposed in principle to modernising the census, but was not confident the administrative data model “would be accurate or reliable enough to justify a step as significant and as permanent as ending New Zealand’s long-standing Census of Population and Dwellings”.
“The census is one of the foundations of our national statistics and electoral system, and the changes proposed by these bills will have consequences that extend beyond statistics alone, affecting the integrity of electoral boundary reviews, democratic representation, public trust, and the quality of evidence available to inform government decision-making.
“A reform of this significance should not proceed while so many important questions remain unanswered.”
The public had not been given enough opportunity to share their views on the changes, with officials placed under time constraints to carry out the work, while those who had made submissions had warned that administrative records collected by government agencies could be out of date with inconsistent standards.
“We are particularly concerned about the effect this could have on Māori, Pasifika, rainbow communities, disabled people, and hard-to-reach rural communities,” Labour said, noting the disproportionate effect that poor-quality data could have on Māori.
The party said changes should not go ahead until an independent review of the proposed census model, including costings of the available options, had been completed and made available to Parliament.
The Greens and Te Pāti Māori are also opposed to the bill, citing similar concerns about the new model and the impact on minority groups.
Asked by Newsroom whether Labour’s change of position meant the census overhaul now had to be put on hold, and what the next steps were, Statistics Minister Scott Simpson did not provide a direct answer but said the Government “welcomed the feedback of the select committee and all who contributed”.
“The Government’s focus is on ensuring New Zealand has a reliable census that delivers the quality data New Zealanders, communities, and policy decision makers can rely on and trust.
“It is the government statistician’s role to ensure that the next census meets New Zealanders’ needs, in a financially responsible way.”
