Government attempts to make capital out of the issue of Channel crossings in a special “small boats week” appear to have backfired with the public, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.
“Small boats week”, earlier this month, was dogged by a series of disasters, including figures showing record numbers of crossings; the evacuation, due to a health scare, of the Bibby Stockholm barge used to house migrants, and the deaths of at least six people when a small boat capsized and sank in the Channel.
Now, according to Opinium, there is evidence that the effort to turn it into a “wedge issue” had the opposite effect, raising its importance in the public’s mind, and strengthening Labour’s lead on immigration.
Opinium found that after “small boats week”, immigration appeared in the top three concerns for voters for the first time this year, overtaking energy prices.
In May, when the same questions were asked, 29% had listed it as a top concern. This had risen to 33% last week.
But in the same period, Labour’s lead on immigration had risen from six points to eight points, with 29% backing Starmer’s party to deal with immigration best against 21% for the Conservatives.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said the rise highlighted “the dangers of raising the salience of an issue you are not fully in control of”. He added: “While more people say immigration is an important issue this week, Labour’s lead on the issue has also increased, as has their general lead on share of the vote.”
The two most important issues to voters were health and the NHS, cited by 63% of those questioned, and the economy, mentioned by 50%. Labour’s lead on health is 22% and on the economy 6%.
Overall Labour’s lead stands at 15%. It is on 41% (up one point on a fortnight ago) while the Conservatives are on 26% (-1). The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 11%, Reform UK is down one point on 9% and the Greens are unchanged on 7%.
Opinium found, however, that many voters had not made up their minds about how they would vote at a general election.
Over half (55%) of those who intend to vote think there is a chance they will change their mind before the next election, and only 45% say they have completely settled on who to vote for.
Just over half (54%) of current Labour voters think they “will definitely vote for this party and won’t change their mind before the election”, with 46% believing there is a small (36%) or good (10%) chance they will change their mind.
Conservative voters are less certain of their vote choice: 44% are sure they won’t change their mind, but 56% say there is a small (39%) or good (17%) chance they will change their mind.
Current Liberal Democrat voters are even less likely to be certain of their vote. Only about a quarter (27%) say they will definitely vote for the Liberal Democrats, while 73% say there is a small (51%) or good (22%) chance they may vote for another party.
