If it feels as though the new Trump administration is taking shape at warp speed, that's because it is. It's unusual for an incoming administration to announce all these Cabinet and staff nominations in such rapid succession but that's part of the Project 2025 manifesto, to hit the ground running as fast as possible. And they're using the Steve Bannon tactic of flooding the zone to keep the media and the opposition off balance.
Trump's getting awards from Fox News, gallivanting around Paris with his best buddy, naming one billionaire after another to his administration and giving his family members anything they want. He has even named his son's (reportedly former) fiancée, Kimberly Guilfoyle, as U.S. ambassador to Greece. And for any recalcitrant senators who still believe they have a say in any of it, he's bringing the hammer down.
Take for example the case of Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa, a former female combat officer who had serious reservations about Trump's choice to be defense secretary, Pete Hegseth. After all, as someone who has experienced sexual assault, she was logically a bit disturbed by the rape allegations against Hegseth as well as his comments that he doesn't think women should be allowed in combat.
Well, Trump and his henchmen made sure Ernst understood that they were not going to stand for any guff from her. Politico reported:
In recent days, allies of Trump adopted an approach that is not novel for the president-elect and his followers: Make life extremely uncomfortable for anyone who dares to oppose him. The swarm of MAGA attacks that Sen. Joni Ernst has experienced is a warning of what’s in store for others who express skepticism of his personnel choices.
Hegseth “became a cause,” said a Trump ally who was granted anonymity to speak freely. “Not even for the official Trump operation, but the movement who is going apeshit for him.”..
“Joni, I’m told,” said a Trump ally with insider knowledge of the transition process, “got the message loud and clear.”
On Monday Ernst said that she will now support Hegseth through the process and demanded that any of the women he assaulted come forward and testify against him or she would discount their accusations. She, of all people, knows exactly what will happen to them if they do.
Whatever resistance the Republican senators may have felt toward Trump's autocratic demands has fizzled in the face of Dear Leader deploying MAGA threats. It is a feature of Trump's Republican Party. Recall what Mitt Romney's biographer, McKay Coppins, told CNN when he was asked whether Romney was planning to endorse Kamala Harris:
Mitt Romney knows that he would be on that enemies list. He’s worried about protecting his family. He said, "You know, I have 25 grandkids. How do you protect 25 grandkids?”
Let's just say the pressure is intense and most of these GOP officials apparently value their seats more than they value their integrity in any case. The way to succeed in Republican politics these days is to follow orders, no questions asked.
So, it appears that Trump is most likely going to get his way and every miscreant nominee will be confirmed. How long they last is another story. If you recall Trump's first term, the turnover was historic. It's hard to imagine that most of them will go the distance.
From what we can tell, they plan to do as much as possible through executive orders, many of which are bound to be at least delayed through litigation. But when it comes to appropriations there's no getting around Congress. Even if Trump and his Office of Management and Budget wizard Russell Vought are able to employ "impoundment" (the currently illegal process by which the president can spend appropriated funds contrary to Congress' negotiated agreement) they still have to get the budget passed through legislation. And that may mess up Trump's first 100 days in ways they can't anticipate.
Over the weekend, Trump's senior adviser and deportation zealot Stephen Miller appeared on Fox News Sunday where he told host Maria Bartiromo that Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., promised the president they can get the full funding for his massive deportation plan done by early February, weeks before the continuing budget resolution from last year expires in March. The plan is to do two big bills through reconciliation (which means they're filibuster-proof) the first being some kind of border/energy/defense bill that could cost in the neighborhood of $120 billion and the second down the road to extend and expand the Trump tax cuts along with whatever other draconian plans they have to destroy the health, safety and economic security of the American people.
According to Axios, Thune wants this first bill to be budget-neutral or negative and is thinking about reversing the Biden administration's student loan relief to pay for it. You have to wonder if he's consulted with shadow president Elon Musk about whether that's going to be OK. After all, Musk is supposedly working on reducing government spending by $2 trillion so he probably needs to use that student loan relief for that. Who's Trump going to choose?
Meanwhile, there's the House of Representatives, which, the last I heard, still has something to say about all this and will be operating with a one-vote margin for the GOP majority during the first two months of the new administration. They are already reportedly chafing at the Musk "DOGE" contraption since budgeting really is their bailiwick and they want to do the cutting themselves. Apparently, Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, insists there will be only one big reconciliation bill later in the year.
And then there's the House Freedom Caucus, which is never satisfied and almost always refuses to take yes for an answer. If there is any negotiation to be done, and one expects there will be with such a small margin and every member having leverage, we can expect them to make the kinds of demands in territory where even Donald Trump fears to tread.
So yes, Republicans are all cowed by Trump and his MAGA army and none of them are operating out of principle. You might think that means Trump will have smooth sailing. But he is a chaos agent and it's very difficult to know if he even understands what he's saying half the time. His inner circle already has competing priorities and half the people he's chosen are without any experience while the other half have agendas that clash with one another. The two chambers of Congress are already butting heads and there is dissension brewing within each of them.
The bottom line is that when it comes to these complicated budgetary matters, this administration will have no leadership at all. I don't doubt that they are going to do a whole lot of very bad things and it's entirely possible that the very worst of them, the deportation plan, will pass early on just as Stephen Miller says. But the rest of it is going to be a mess, with possible government shutdowns and speaker challenges and the most powerful man in the world eventually facing down the richest man in the world when their egos can't fit in the Oval Office at the same time. If you have any spare change, you might want to invest in popcorn futures.
