People in Republican congressional districts tend to drive further — and that could worsen the party's midterm woes as fuel costs soar.
Why it matters: Pump prices are poised to play an outsized role in November, especially if the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz persists.
- Democrats and allied groups are seeking to make Iran war-driven price increases a major campaign theme. President Trump met with oil executives earlier this week to discuss the war's energy fallout.
Threat level: "Many Republican House members in Congress could be especially threatened; their average constituent drives 26% more miles than a Democratic member's average constituent," a new Brookings Institution analysis finds.
- And gas use is pretty resistant to big changes even when prices spike. Driving isn't especially optional for huge numbers of people, especially in more rural or sprawling areas.
- Several closely watched states, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, had gas prices on Wednesday above the national average.
- Still, a number of states with the lowest prices tend to be GOP-leaning.
Zoom in: A $1 climb in the average cost of gasoline leads to the country's median-earning, two-driver households spending $70 more per month to fill up, per Brookings.
- As of Wednesday, U.S. regular gasoline averaged $4.23 per gallon, up roughly a dollar and a quarter since the war started. Prices are slated to keep climbing alongside crude oil's latest spike in recent days.
- Low- and moderate-income families take the biggest hit. In 2024, households in the lowest-earning income quintile who had access to a car spent 10.3% of all pre-tax income on gasoline, per Brookings.
- It was 5.2% in the second-lowest quintile.
Yes, but: There are forces that could cushion the political blow for Republican House and Senate candidates.
- Spending to fill up as a share of income "remains well off its historical highs," a Bank of America analysis finds, though it cautions that prices are nonetheless "stretching household budgets."
- Gasoline's slice of consumer expenses was higher in 2022 than now, and comfortably below the 5% reached in 2008, 2011 and 2012, it notes.
Friction point: Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been emphasizing that gasoline prices are far below the Biden-era peak, when per AAA they reached $5.02 per gallon in mid-2022.
What we're watching: Competitive races, including Michigan's Senate contest, in states with prices that have seen sharp rises.
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