An esteemed Iowa poll known for its surprising accuracy in past elections revealed an unexpected lead for Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, 47% to 44%. Trump and other Republican figures quickly reacted to the results, calling the poll "fake" and citing another recent poll predicting his victory in Iowa.
Des Moines Register newspaper pollster Ann Selzer credited Harris's lead to women and independent voters in an interview with BBC, emphasizing that "there's still a margin of error" as neither candidate gets to 50%.
Trump, who won Iowa by nearly 10 points in each of the last two elections, responded to the results via his Truth Social account, citing an Emerson College poll released Saturday that shows him leading in Iowa.
"No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it's not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT. I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME. THE JUST OUT EMERSON POLL HAS ME UP 10 POINTS IN IOWA. THANK YOU!"
Republican supporters echoed Trump's claims on social media, calling the poll "fake." Some users described the poll as an attempt to "keep Republicans home" and suppress their vote.
Responding to Trump calling her a "Trump hater," Seltzer told Newsweek that she was not surprised by the backlash.
"These are the kinds of comments seen for virtually any poll, including mine. The Des Moines Register includes a methodology statement with each story they publish. It's the same methodology used to show Trump winning Iowa in the final polls in 2016 and 2020. It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients—The Des Moines Register and Mediacom—to conjure fake numbers," she said.
Selzer's poll surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters between October 28 and 31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points, which Harris' lead is within. The poll also found that 16% of people not supporting Trump say there was a time when they did support him.
One of them being Ralph Newbanks, 63, a lifelong Republican who plans to vote for Harris. "It's not what I like about her, it's what I dislike about Trump," he told the De Moines Register. "Since 2020 and the Capitol riots, I couldn't vote for Trump if he paid me, not for love nor money."
Political analysts are divided about the survey's results, some say the poll is probably inaccurate and others consider its results as a signal of broader national shifts.
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