Republicans are getting crushed in scores of state and local races, raising deep concerns about a deflated base refusing to show up to vote even in the most pro-Trump areas.
Why it matters: The numbers are startling. In race after race, Democrats are outpacing their 2024 performance by double digits, a clear sign of a yawning enthusiasm gap.
By the numbers: Democrats have outperformed former Vice President Harris' 2024 numbers by an average of 10.5 percentage points in the 20 state legislative districts that've held special elections this year.
- Democratic candidates outperformed Harris by even more — an average of 13.9 points — in the 67 state House and Senate races last year, according to The Downballot, a site that tracks state-level and congressional campaigns.
Republicans' internal polling is aligning with recent surveys that suggest a downturn in support for GOP candidates.
- Many Republicans trace their troubles to Trump not being on the ballot this year or in 2028.
- But strategists acknowledge that some of his actions — including the administration's reluctance to release more of the Epstein files — have turned off parts of his MAGA base, while energizing Democrats and anti-GOP independents.
- Polls have shown widespread dissatisfaction with Trump's immigration crackdown and with how he's handling the economy.
Zoom in: A big warning sign came Jan. 31, when Democrats snatched a North Texas-based seat in the state Senate.
- Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the seat by 14 points in a district Trump won by 17 in 2024.
Then, on Feb. 7, Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez won a South Louisiana state House district with a 24-point landslide margin.
- Trump had won the district by 13 points in 2024.
On Feb. 10, a Republican won a special election for a conservative north-central Oklahoma state House district by 28 points.
- Trump won the district by 58 points in 2024.
Since the start of the year, Republicans have suffered double-digit drop-offs from Trump's 2024 performance in state legislative elections in Northern and Central Virginia, New York City, east-central Minnesota, and southeastern Connecticut.
- "While it is tempting for many in our party to wish away these results," a GOP operative told Axios, "the pattern is clear that there is at least a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024 — and it's built on a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base."
Between the lines: National Democrats could use the state legislative elections as a template for how to win in pro-Trump areas.
- Rehmet, who won the state Senate seat in North Texas, told Axios that rather than attacking Trump, he focused on lowering costs — an issue "facing everyday, working Texans."
- Running against Trump "wasn't my campaign," said Rehmet, adding that he believed he got "sizable" support from Trump voters.
The other side: Some Republicans caution against reading too much into state and local elections, arguing they often don't reflect national trends.
- They note that Trump's cash-flush political operation didn't aggressively work to turn out the president's supporters in any of the recent elections — something it'll do in U.S. House and Senate elections this November.
- They also point out that Trump plans to hit the trail aggressively, which they believe will help to turn out his supporters.
"Let's not pretend a couple of low-turnout special elections suddenly signal a political earthquake," said Mason Di Palma, communications director for the Republican State Leadership Committee.
- "They are unique, low-turnout contests driven by highly localized factors."
