The latest batch of hundreds of Goldman Sachs bankers to lose their jobs as part of the investment giant's annual culling exercise will face a much bleaker job market than the last round of underperformers. There are 9.4% fewer banking and finance jobs available today than there were a year ago, according to the Indeed job posting index, which tracks the seven-day trailing average of job postings by sector.
There are currently 1.36 million American banking jobs, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data—33,000 fewer than last year, meaning job seekers must compete for fewer opportunities.
The shrinking job market for bankers is even worse if you look back to August 2022, when there were 47% more jobs on Indeed than there are today, and 45% more on Santa Monica–based competitor ZipRecruiter. In total, there are 16,500 fewer American banking jobs today than there were back then.
The reduction in jobs coincides with a record year for banks. The Dow Jones U.S. Banks Index that tracks the weighted average performance of American banks of all sizes has increased by 41% over the year ending Sept. 6.
Those two things are likely related, according to Andrew Crowell, vice chairman of wealth management for investment firm D.A. Davidson. Crowell says the current bull run "could continue for several more years" and relies heavily on tech investments.
“Bringing efficiencies to businesses," he says, "whether through computerization, automation, AI, or culling from the bottom of the least productive individuals in a company is just good discipline.” Cromwell's observations are consistent with a Citigroup report in June, which predicted 54% of banking jobs could be “displaced” by artificial intelligence, more than any other industry.
There is, however, reason for optimism. In spite of the net decrease in banking jobs according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, ZipRecruiter is already seeing an uptick in job postings since a year ago.
It’s also important to note that Goldman isn’t the only bank that routinely culls its weakest performers. Both JPMorgan and Citi also annually cut underperformers, and all three are also hiring. Goldman’s global head of communications told Fortune in a statement that the bank expects to employ more people in 2024 than in 2023.
"Our economy has reopened," says Crowell. "Supply chains have have smoothed out; the disruptions we saw globally have now loosened."
