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The 2024/25 Premier League season gets underway on Friday night and while team honours and objectives are the overriding factors at play, the individual accolades of the campaign will once more be in the spotlight - with the Golden Boot usually an intriguing battle of form and fitness in attack.
Over the past two years, though, Manchester City’s Erling Haaland has run away with it - winning back-to-back awards after scoring 36 and then 27 league goals, five clear last year of his nearest rival, Cole Palmer.
Prior to the Norwegian’s arrival it was Mohamed Salah who was frequently in the running, winning or joint-winning on three occasions, though another summer of transfers, managerial changes and shifts in tactical trends means we could well see new candidates emerge across the next ten months.
It will still take something special - and consistent - to stop Haaland though, as he bids to become the first player since Thierry Henry in 03/04, 04/05 and 05/06 to finish as top scorer in three consecutive Premier League seasons.
Here are our top-ranked considerations to win this year and their current odds to win the Golden Boot, along with some outsiders who could be interesting alternatives if they catch fire and enjoy an injury-free season. Average odds are noted for informational purposes but have no bearing on our selections or predictions.
1. Erling Haaland
Unsurprisingly, Haaland is indeed our top pick to win - there’s nothing clever about it. He plays for the best team, they have all kinds of supply lines to service him, he’s the undisputed starting No9 for them...and he’s absolutely lethal in the penalty box. Sometimes you don’t need to overthink things - if he stays fit and plays most games from the start, he’s hitting a minimum of 25 once again. Odds: 8/11
2. Mohamed Salah
Of the main contenders, two would appear to be most likely to challenge Haaland - with Salah receiving top billing in that regard, simply as he has the weight of achievement behind him. The Liverpool forward has three awards in his cupboard already, albeit two shared, and he’s still looking extremely sharp and regularly at the forefront of the Reds’ attacking play, though that is tempered by the fact that Arne Slot may shift the focus slightly as the new head coach. 10/1
3. Alexander Isak
Perhaps just about the third choice Alexander Isak, for a good reason: Newcastle, quite aside from having a talented squad which finished top four two seasons ago, have no European football this year. While it means Isak and co will play fewer games - attackers in particular seem to have love runs of form when midweek matches contribute to the tally - that might be a big factor in their favour this year. Injuries decimated the Magpies last term, but if Isak stays fit he should start a vast majority of matches. Goals should certainly follow. 16/1
4. Ollie Watkins
Along the same lines as Isak is Ollie Watkins, but he has now got to shoulder the added burden of matching a great personal campaign with doing it in Europe for Aston Villa, too. Maybe rotation or fatigue plays a part, maybe not, but we’re just edging him below the Swede on that basis - particularly as he had a long summer at Euro 2024, too. Very capable of course, but last season’s 27-goal haul in all competitions was his personal best by a mile, yet still left him well off the likes of Haaland. 16/1
5. Cole Palmer
Chelsea as a team remain an enigma, but Cole Palmer is surely set to be no one-season wonder. That’s in performance levels, though: for goals it could be a different matter, so despite breaching the 20-barrier last term, he figures lower for us. Can he get the same number of penalties? Will Enzo Mareca be able to set the team up to get the best out of him immediately? Will Palmer suffer the usual down-periods most young players suffer through? All are relevant, and reasons why he might struggle for a podium place in 24/25 in goalscoring terms. 20/1
Selected outsiders:
Bukayo Saka, 33/1 - Arsenal’s all-round star boy has been creator and scorer alike and has enormous consistency - but turning into a 20-plus attacker is a big ask.
Phil Foden, 40/1 - Back at club level he’ll be a dual threat too, and given he scored 19 last year in the league he can definitely improve. Hard to imagine him outscoring one particular teammate all the same.
Dominic Solanke, 20/1 - Scored 19 last term with Bournemouth, so could definitely hit more with better supply lines to him, but would need to hit the ground running in his new side and improve upon his best-ever year in front of goal.
Jean-Philippe Mateta, 50/1 - Seems to be one of Europe’s most in-form forwards between the end of last year and this summer! Surely too much for him to extend it a whole year but...
Diogo Jota, 66/1 - It’s all about fitness for the Liverpool forward, who looks set to be the starting centre-forward - but missed big chunks of last year injured.
Darwin Nunez, 18/1 - If Jota isn’t fit then it’s down to the man who frequently looks like he could score six in one game and then none in the next six.
Joshua Zirkzee, 66/1 - A probable split of game time means Manchester United’s new signing is unlikely to truly trouble the league’s top scorers...
Rasmus Hojlund, 50/1 - ...while another year should see improvement for Hojlund, but he has a long way to go also.
Nicolas Jackson, 33/1 - Chelsea have the attacking talent to supply him, but Jackson would need to find composure and consistency to really trouble the big hitters.
Kai Havertz, 33/1 - Magical at times, match-winner at others...missing at still others. Presumably will be Arsenal’s centre-forward but still needs to add regularity of goals to his game.
Ivan Toney, 20/1 - No question he has the talent, but will he move? Will he be first choice if so? Are Brentford good enough if he stays?
Son Heung-min, 25/1 - Suffered with inconsistency last season (and that miss) but in Golden Boot terms it might just be the fact he won’t be No9 after Solanke’s arrival.
Niclas Fullkrug, 50/1 - We’re probably being kind at this point but the new West Ham striker certainly knows how to hit the back of the net. Hard.
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