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Barchart
Don Dawson

Gold's Bull Run: Seasonal Strength Meets Conflicting COT Report—Are You In?

Gold market bulls have been riding an intense wave since the 2022 lows, when prices began trending towards the $2,000 per ounce level and finally breaking out, and the momentum hasn't let up. By July 2025, gold had an all-time high of $3,509.9, based on the nearest futures contract charts. Trading up 117% from $1,618 in October 2022. Managed Money began aggressively buying during the October 2022 lows and continued until September 2024, when gold was trading near $2,730. Later, I will assess the current Commitment of Traders (COT) report. 

Hedgers, like mining companies and central banks, have also benefited. Miners like Newmont (NEM) had revenue in Q1 2025 of $5.01 billion, representing a 24.5% increase from the $4.023 billion reported in Q1 2024. Higher year-over-year realized gold prices primarily drove this increase. In 2024, central banks accumulated significant gold as part of their reserve diversification strategy amidst global economic uncertainties and currency volatility. The amount of gold stockpiled was close to 1,045 metric tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. This marked the third consecutive year in which central bank gold purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes, a trend according to AInvest driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation risks, and a strategic retreat from the U.S. dollar. This rally has rewarded both those chasing quick profits and those shielding against economic uncertainty.

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