Countries around the world are pouring funds into new natural gas facilities that could destroy the chances of limiting global heating, in response to soaring energy prices and the war in Ukraine.
Governments including the US, Germany, the UK and Canada are investing in new gas production, distribution and use as they seek to sanction Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, according to new research.
The findings, from the Climate Action Tracker research initiative, show a dash for gas under way that will lock countries into fossil fuel use at a crucial time, when scientists have warned that a decisive turn towards lower-carbon alternatives within the next few years is the only way to stave off climate breakdown.
Niklas Höhne, of NewClimate Institute, one of the partners behind the Climate Action Tracker, said: “We’re about to witness a ‘gold rush’ for new fossil gas production, pipelines and LNG [liquefied natural gas] facilities, locking us into another high-carbon decade.”
The report highlighted the US, which has signed a deal to export additional LNG to the EU, through an increased effort on fracking. Germany and Italy have also signed deals with Qatar as a gas supplier, as has Egypt, the host of the world’s next climate summit, Cop27 in Sharm El-Sheikh this November.
Canada also plans new LNG production, fast-tracking construction to meet export demand. Overall, fossil fuel production has increased in Canada, the US, Norway, Italy and Japan, according to Climate Action Tracker.
The UK is also facing a massive expansion of oil and gas production in the North Sea, as the government has imposed a windfall tax on the industry that contains a loophole encouraging companies to invest in new production.
Developing countries are getting in on the act, too. Nigeria is reviving gas pipeline projects that had been shelved, and Senegal and other countries are hoping to explore their gas reserves.
Oil and gas companies around the world are enjoying a bonanza after the war in Ukraine sent energy prices – already rising as the world recovered from the economic shock of Covid-19 – to fresh highs.
The dash for gas comes as scientists have warned it is “now or never” on the climate. Global greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to give the world a chance of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the target agreed at last year’s Cop26 climate summit.
Some countries have argued that gas production has a role in the transition to a clean energy future, as gas produces less carbon dioxide than coal. But the International Energy Agency warned a year ago that no new oil and gas exploration could take place from this year on, if the world was to limit global heating to 1.5C.
Separate research has also found that moving directly to renewable energy from coal is cheaper than using gas as a “transition” fuel.
Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, also a partner in the Climate Action Tracker, said the world was compounding the mistake made after the Covid-19 pandemic struck, when despite soaring green rhetoric, few countries made a decisive shift in favour of a low-carbon economic recovery.
He warned: “Something has to change: we cannot go on responding to short-term shocks, be they pandemics or energy shocks from conflict, by taking steps that would increase emissions, ignoring the looming crisis of climate change.”
Hare also pointed to the many alternative policies governments should use, such as improving energy efficiency, ramping up renewable energy, boosting public transport and imposing windfall taxes on the bumper profits of fossil fuel companies. These have been largely neglected in many countries, the CAT report warned, which have focused on short-term energy supply responses instead.
